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Key news to follow:
1. Polish Foreign Minister Warns of Risk of "Broader Aggression" by Russia by the End of the Decade.
2. Tusk: Poland seeks a quick but fair peace for Ukraine.
3. Poland announces major changes to protect border with Belarus.
Analysis: The latest statement by the Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski regarding the potential "broader aggression by the end of the decade" from Russia indicates a deep awareness of the Polish leadership of long-term threats to regional security. The minister's analysis of the dramatic change in the balance of power in the event of Ukraine's capitulation, when its industrial and human resources would be under the control of the aggressor, is particularly revealing. The emphasis on the fact that "Ukraine is not a passive victim of aggression" but is fighting with the support of allies, including Poland and the EU, underlines the Polish side's understanding of Ukraine's subjectivity in the international arena.
Moreover, the statement by the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in turn, confirms the consistency of Poland's policy towards the Russian-Ukrainian war. The desire for a "quick peace" is combined with a clear understanding that only a just peace and full sovereignty of Ukraine can ensure long-term security for the entire region. Of fundamental importance is Tusk's recognition that support for Ukraine goes beyond solidarity and is, first and foremost, "a condition for the security of Poland, the security of Europe, the security of all NATO members." This position is a consequence of the strategic thinking of the Polish leadership, which views the Ukrainian issue through the prism of its own national interests and the collective security of the Alliance.
The announcement of the modernization of the electronic barrier on the Polish-Belarusian border, although not directly related to Ukraine, is important for understanding the broader security context in the region. Significant investments in border infrastructure, the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies and increased monitoring reflect the seriousness with which Warsaw treats hybrid threats from the east. The reduction in the number of attempts to illegally cross the border demonstrates the effectiveness of these measures, which is important for deterring manifestations of hybrid aggression coordinated by Moscow through Minsk.
We believe that these events confirm the strategic focus of Polish foreign policy on supporting Ukraine's sovereignty as a guarantee of its own national security. Poland's position places Ukrainian-Polish relations at the level of a strategic partnership, which goes beyond bilateral ties and fits into the broader context of European security. We foresee further deepening of cooperation between Ukraine and Poland in the military, diplomatic, and information spheres, despite individual differences in historical or economic issues. The Ukrainian leadership should make the most of this favorable moment to consolidate support from Warsaw and strengthen its own positions in the Euro-Atlantic community because Poland's solidarity is based not only on emotional support but also on sober calculation and understanding of the interdependence of the security of both states in the face of the Russian threat.
Key news to follow:
1. The Czech Republic is preparing instructions for citizens on how to survive in crisis conditions.
2. Czech Prime Minister Accuses Election Race Leader of Helping Putin.
Analysis: The recent announcement of the Czech Ministry of Internal Affairs' intention to present a brochure with advice on how to behave in crisis situations to the population demonstrates the practical approach of the Czech government to issues of national security and civil protection. Significantly, Minister Vit Rakušan chose the Finnish "72 hours" concept as a basis, which has proven its effectiveness in the countries of Northern Europe for decades. It is noteworthy that the decision is based on specific sociological data - 76% of Czechs surveyed expressed a desire to be better prepared for emergencies, and 70% seek to receive more detailed information about actions during disasters. Such attention to public opinion and borrowing best international practices reflects the seriousness of the Czech government's approach to crisis management in the context of growing instability in the European region.
The political confrontation between the current Prime Minister Petr Fiala and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš on the eve of the parliamentary elections has acquired a distinct geopolitical color. Accusations against Babis of "helping Putin" by opposing the Czech initiative on ammunition and calls for "peace without conditions" reflect a deep split in Czech society over continued support for Ukraine. A worrying signal is the significant gap between the populist party ANO (33%) and the pro-Ukrainian coalition SPOLU (17%) in sociological surveys. Babis, who openly imitates the rhetoric of Orban and Fico, could potentially significantly reformat the Czech Republic's foreign policy course if he wins the election. Of particular concern is his willingness to wait for US President Donald Trump to "resolve" the conflict, which indicates the readiness of Czech populists to subordinate regional security to external political calculations.
Analyzing these events, we observed two parallel processes in Czech politics: on the one hand, a technocratic strengthening of the state’s resilience to crises, and on the other, a sharp political confrontation on foreign policy and security issues. This dichotomy, in our opinion, reflects broader trends in the Central European region, where pragmatic measures to increase national resilience are combined with populist attacks on the principles of collective security. Given the role of the Czech Republic as one of Ukraine’s most consistent allies, a potential change in the power configuration in Prague could have serious consequences for the regional security architecture.
The IESS suggests that Ukrainian-Czech relations remain at a critical juncture. Despite the strong support from the Fiala government, the future of the bilateral cooperation looks uncertain. Kyiv should work more actively with Czech civil society and business, creating a network of bilateral ties that would be resistant to political fluctuations. It is also worth noting that, despite their radical rhetoric, populists in the region often demonstrate pragmatism after coming to power. Therefore, it is advisable for Ukrainian diplomacy to seek opportunities for dialogue with various political forces in the Czech Republic, focusing on common interests in the security and economic spheres, regardless of ideological differences.
Key news to follow:
1. Fico does not allow the possibility of sending Slovak peacekeepers to Ukraine, but the opposition's views differ.
2. Russia's Gazprom will significantly increase gas supplies to Slovakia via the TurkStream gas pipeline starting in April.
Analysis: The resumption of Russian gas supplies to Slovakia via the Turkish Stream since early February signals significant changes in the region's energy landscape. The statement by the CEO of Slovak importer SPP Vojtech Ferenc about a "multiple-fold increase" in volumes compared to previous months indicates a gradual deepening of Bratislava's energy dependence on Moscow. It is worth noting that after the cessation of transit through Ukraine at the end of 2024, Slovakia found itself in a difficult situation, forced to rely on supplies from Hungary. The most worrying aspect of this situation is the Slovak government's willingness to use Ukraine's support as a bargaining chip in energy negotiations - threats to veto EU aid to Kyiv if gas transit through Ukrainian territory is not resumed demonstrate the prioritization of narrow national interests over the principles of European solidarity.
The issue of the potential deployment of peacekeeping contingents in Ukraine is divisive across the Slovak political spectrum, mirroring broader debates in the European community. Prime Minister Robert Fico and President Peter Pellegrini’s categorical refusal to allow Slovak military personnel to participate in any missions on the territory of Ukraine contrasts with the position of the opposition forces – Progressive Slovakia and the Democrats – who allow for the possibility of a peacekeeping (but not combat) presence. The Fico government systematically uses this issue for political struggle, labeling its opponents as a “war party”. The Prime Minister’s manipulative claim about the opposition’s alleged promises to President Zelenskyy regarding the presence of Slovak troops on Ukrainian territory seems particularly cynical – such baseless accusations only deepen the polarization of society and undermine the possibilities of a constructive dialogue on security issues.
Analyzing both topics, we see a disturbing tendency to use the Ukrainian issue in Slovakia's internal political struggle, which leads to inconsistency and contradictions in Bratislava's positions on the international arena. On one hand, the Fico government demands that Ukraine resume gas transit, on the other hand, it categorically refuses to consider options for ensuring peace on Ukrainian territory in the future. Such a policy of "double standards" calls into question the sincerity of statements about the desire for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
For the Ukrainian side, the situation with Slovakia requires an extremely balanced approach. From our point of view, it is critically important for Kyiv to develop contacts with pro-Ukrainian political forces in Slovakia, while at the same time seeking pragmatic compromises with the current authorities. The issue of gas transit could become a platform for constructive dialogue if it is separated from political blackmail regarding European aid. At the same time, we urge Ukrainian diplomacy to work more actively with Slovakia's civil society, underlying that the country's true national interests lie in supporting a stable neighbor, not in appeasing an aggressor. The Russian "gas needle" strategy, using the example of Slovakia, demonstrates how energy dependence can undermine the foundations of European unity and solidarity – a lesson that should be learned by all participants in the process.
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