Key news to follow:
1. The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Slovakia announced the resumption of Russian oil supplies to the country.
2. Government to resume issuing tourist visas to Russians.
Analysis: The statement by Slovakia's Deputy Prime Minister Denisa Saková regarding the restoration of Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline demonstrates a concerning trend toward returning to energy dependence on the aggressor. Meanwhile, her comment about "hoping for stable pipeline operation" and the absence of attacks on energy infrastructure effectively amounts to indirect criticism of Ukrainian actions to destroy Russian military facilities. We assess this position as Bratislava's attempt to avoid responsibility for its own energy policy by shifting it onto Ukraine, which is conducting a defensive war against Russian aggression.
The situation is complicated by the decision to quietly resume issuing tourist visas to Russian citizens, which Slovakia implemented without broad consultation with EU partners. The fact that the Slovak side avoids official comments on this step indicates awareness of its controversial nature in the context of European solidarity with Ukraine. Such actions undermine the European Union's consolidated position regarding restrictions on contacts with Russian citizens as an element of pressure on Putin's regime.
The IESS anticipates that similar moves by Slovakia could set a precedent for other Central European countries seeking to soften the sanctions regime against Russia under the guise of economic expediency. Bratislava is effectively demonstrating readiness to sacrifice European unity for short-term economic benefits, which contradicts the principles underlying the EU's common policy toward Russian aggression. We strongly believe such actions require a decisive response from European institutions and a reconsideration of mechanisms for ensuring solidarity within the Union on issues of fundamental importance to European security.
Key news to follow:
1. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky emphasizes that Europe, while developing security guarantees for Ukraine, must prepare new anti-Russian sanctions.
2. A month before the Czech Republic`s presidential elections, the former prime minister's populist party continues to lead.
Analysis: Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský's approach to future negotiations with Russia demonstrates pragmatic wisdom often lacking in contemporary European political discourse. His directive to simultaneously develop both security guarantees for Ukraine and new sanctions against the Kremlin reflects an understanding of the reality of Putin's diplomacy. We endorse this position as balanced and responsible, particularly in light of Lipavský's statements about the necessity of halting Russian attacks as a prerequisite for any negotiations. This stance contrasts with naive expectations from some European capitals for quick conflict resolution without proper pressure on the aggressor.
However, the results of pre-election polls in Czechia raise serious concerns about Prague's future policy on the Ukrainian issue. The leadership of Andrej Babiš's ANO party, with 33% support, creates a real threat of a cardinal shift in the Czech position regarding aid to Ukraine. Babiš's statements about intentions to cancel the ammunition initiative, which has become one of the most effective European mechanisms for military support to Ukraine, indicate a possible turn of Czechia from a pro-Ukrainian position toward populist policies pandering to pro-Russian sentiments among a part of the electorate. The Institute views such trends as a potential threat to the consolidation of the European approach to Russian aggression.
Particularly alarming is the fact that ANO maintains stable support despite corruption scandals surrounding Babiš's Agrofert conglomerate, including demands to return over 200 million euros in illegally obtained EU agricultural subsidies. This indicates that a significant portion of Czech voters are willing to ignore violations of European standards for populist promises. We anticipate that in the case of ANO's victory in the October elections, Czechia may join the group of countries sabotaging unified European policy toward Ukraine, alongside Hungary and Slovakia. Such a prospect requires preventive action from European institutions and Ukraine's allies to minimize potential negative consequences for the common strategy of countering Russian aggression
Key news to follow:
1. Polish president vetoes law on support for Ukrainians
2. Deputy Prime Minister of Poland: Russia is happy about Navrosky's blocking of support for Ukraine
3. Former Polish Prime Minister Calls for Deportations for Displaying "Bandera Symbols"
Analysis: Polish President Karol Nawrocki's decision to veto the law on assistance to Ukrainian citizens demonstrates a cardinal reversal from his predecessor Andrzej Duda's policy and threatens the fundamental principles of Polish-Ukrainian solidarity. Nawrocki's motivation regarding the need for "social justice" for Poles in their own country, while potentially appearing logical in the context of domestic social sentiments, effectively destroys the symbolic significance of Poland as Europe's primary defender of the Ukrainian cause. The Institute views this step as the beginning of Warsaw's possible departure from its status as Ukraine's most reliable ally in Europe, which could have catastrophic consequences for the entire system of European support for Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression.
Particularly alarming is the rhetoric regarding "Bandera symbolism," which Nawrocki seeks to equate with Nazi and Communist symbols in Poland's criminal code. Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's statements about "immediate deportation" for displaying red-and-black flags transform historical traumas into tools of contemporary political struggle and create a precedent for further marginalization of Ukrainian presence in Poland. We consider such actions an attempt to shift focus from supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia to domestic populist messages aimed at mobilizing part of the Polish electorate at the expense of deteriorating bilateral relations with Kyiv.
Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski's criticism that Moscow rejoices at such changes in Polish position reflects an understanding of the true weight of these decisions for the geopolitical balance in the region. Indeed, any weakening of Polish support for Ukraine automatically becomes a victory for Russian propaganda and diplomacy, which constantly attempt to split European unity in supporting Ukrainian resistance. Nawrocki may be unwittingly playing into Putin's strategy of gradually undermining Western solidarity with Ukraine through internal contradictions in allied countries.
The IESS anticipates that further escalation of Polish-Ukrainian tensions could become a catalyst for similar processes in other Central European countries, where populist forces are also seeking ways to capitalize on societal fatigue from the costs of supporting Ukrainian refugees. If Poland, traditionally considered an unquestionable leader in supporting Ukraine, begins retreating from this role, it could provoke a domino effect among other European partners. Warsaw risks losing not only its special status in relations with Kyiv, but also its geopolitical significance as a key player in confronting Russian imperialism in Eastern Europe.