Key news to follow:
1. The EU is confident that it will overcome Slovakia's resistance to new sanctions against Russia
2. Fico says he sees no point in meeting with Zelensky because he "hates" him
Analysis: Slovakia's blocking of the 18th sanctions package against Russia demonstrates the growing problem of individual EU members' energy dependence on Russian gas becoming an instrument of political blackmail. Prime Minister Robert Fico's position, demanding guarantees for gas supplies after 2028 in exchange for supporting sanctions, undermines European Union unity in confronting Russian aggression. The Institute assesses such tactics as a dangerous precedent that allows Moscow to maintain leverage over European policy through individual countries' energy dependence. Despite European officials' optimism about quickly resolving the issue with Slovakia, we observe a troubling trend where national energy interests are placed above Europe's collective security.
Fico's personal attacks against President Zelensky, particularly his statement that the Ukrainian leader "hates" him, demonstrate the degradation of diplomatic dialogue and an attempt to shift interstate relations into the realm of personal grievances. Such rhetoric is unacceptable for a European country's leader and indicates an attempt to justify his own pro-Russian position by artificially creating conflict at a personal level. Meanwhile, Fico's acknowledgment of the benefits of Ukraine's EU membership appears as an attempt to balance his position and avoid complete isolation in the European political space. The Institute believes that Bratislava's duplicitous policy weakens not only support for Ukraine but also undermines trust in Slovakia as a reliable partner within the EU and NATO frameworks.
The situation with individual EU countries blocking sanctions and European integration processes requires an urgent review of decision-making mechanisms in the Union's foreign and security policy. We anticipate that the "EU minus one" tactic will become standard practice for overcoming destructive positions of individual members, effectively creating a multi-speed Europe in security matters. Slovakia finding itself grouped with Hungary as a country systematically undermining European solidarity for narrow national interests and maintaining energy ties with the aggressor. The Institute calls on European leaders not to compromise on sanctions pressure against Russia and to develop clear mechanisms supporting countries in transitioning to alternative energy sources to prevent further energy blackmail from the Kremlin.
Key news to follow:
1. Suspects of spreading Islamist propaganda detained in the Czech Republic
2. President Pavel reveals how Trump was urged in The Hague to increase pressure on Russia
Analysis: Czech security services' activity in countering youth radicalization through social media and President Petr Pavel's leadership position on the international stage shape Czechia's image as a responsible European security player. Operation MERDA, which resulted in the arrest of a group of radicalized teenagers with no connections to the local Muslim community, reveals a new threat – online radicalization of European youth through TikTok, Instagram, and Telegram platforms. The Institute notes the professional approach of Czech services, which not only detected the threat at an early stage but also coordinated actions with partners in Austria, Slovakia, and the UK. This international cooperation contrasts with the isolationist tendencies of some of Czechia's neighbors and demonstrates Prague's understanding of the transboundary nature of modern security challenges.
President Pavel's speech at the closed NATO summit dinner in The Hague demonstrates Czechia's ambition to play a leading role in shaping transatlantic strategy toward Russia. Pavel's use of Trump's own rhetoric about successful tariff pressure on China to argue for economic sanctions against Moscow shows diplomatic skill and understanding of the American leader's psychology. We assess this attempt as an important contribution to maintaining transatlantic unity, especially against the backdrop of Washington's hesitation regarding further strategy. Prague consistently demonstrates that small and medium-sized EU states can effectively influence common policy formation when acting with clear vision and moral authority.
The contrast between Czechia's proactive security policy and the destructive positions of Slovakia or Hungary underscores the split in Central Europe on fundamental security issues. While Bratislava blocks sanctions for gas interests, Prague works to strengthen economic pressure on the aggressor and protects its citizens from new forms of radicalization. The Institute predicts that Czechia will continue strengthening its position as a reliable NATO and EU ally, using moral capital to advance more decisive policies toward Russia. The success of the Czech model – combining effective internal security with principled foreign policy – could serve as an example for other regional countries balancing between national interests and shared values.
Key news to follow:
1. Foreign minister: Arms race could bring down Putin's regime like it did with USSR
2. Most Poles consider US-Russia talks on Ukraine without Ukraine unacceptable
3. “Over 500 years, we have learned: if the Russians threaten you, you should believe it” – Sikorsky
Analysis: Polish diplomacy demonstrates a unique synthesis of historical memory and strategic thinking, which Minister Radosław Sikorski aptly formulated with his phrase about 500 years of experience with Russia. His parallel between Putin's regime and Brezhnev's "stagnation" reflects a deep understanding of the structural weaknesses of authoritarian systems that inevitably face economic collapse through militarization. The Institute considers this analysis particularly apt in the context of Moscow's current spending of approximately 40% of its budget on war and defense. The Polish approach to the arms race as an instrument of systemic pressure on the aggressor demonstrates mature strategic thinking that goes beyond simple military confrontation and aims at long-term transformation of the Russian political system.
The paradox of Polish society, which simultaneously insists on Ukraine's participation in any negotiations (74%) while leaning toward reducing military aid (46%), reflects the complex dynamics of war fatigue even in countries with the strongest historical motivation to counter the Russian threat. We see this not so much as a decline in solidarity with Ukraine, but rather as society's natural anxiety about its own security and economic stability. Particularly telling is the contrast between Poles' understanding of the strategic importance of supporting Ukraine for their own security (44%) and emotional fatigue from the prolonged conflict. The Institute predicts that this trend will require more active communication from Ukrainian leadership with Polish society and demonstration of the effective use of assistance.
Sikorski's formula "every country has an army: either its own or someone else's" crystallizes the Polish understanding of Central Europe's security reality and contrasts with the illusions of neutrality still cherished by some European politicians. Warsaw consistently transforms historical experience into practical policy, neither resorting to empty rhetoric nor diminishing the reality of the threat. We assess the Polish model – combining hard realism with active international diplomacy – as the most adequate response to the challenges of Russian aggression. At the same time, Polish society's growing skepticism about the scale of support for Ukraine signals the need to rethink solidarity mechanisms in conditions of protracted war and search for new cooperation formats that would account for partner countries' internal challenges.