Key news to follow:
1. Fico accuses Ukraine of "political blackmail" against Hungary over Druzhba pipeline
2. Bratislava and Washington agree on energy partnership and purchase of American fighter jets
Analysis:
Fico's accusations of "political blackmail" by Ukraine against Hungary mark Bratislava's just another point in ongoing openly pro-Russian rhetoric of the Slovak government. Notably, Russia itself struck the pipeline infrastructure on January 27, yet the Slovak PM blames Kyiv for using energy as leverage against Budapest. The threat to cut electricity exports to Ukraine, even framed as "sympathy for the Ukrainian people," shows willingness to weaponize energy dependence as a political tool.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to Bratislava and the agreement to build a Westinghouse nuclear power plant by 2040 create a paradoxical situation. Slovakia simultaneously strengthens its partnership with Washington, purchases American F16s, and continues its pro-Russian line on Ukraine and, notably, anti-EU line. Rubio's visit, which Reuters calls an attempt to "strengthen ties" with conservative leaders, effectively legitimizes Fico's position. The American administration chooses rapprochement with ideologically aligned regimes without considering the impact on European consensus regarding Ukraine.
IESS views this as consolidating Slovakia's role as a "bridge" between the Kremlin and MAGA elites. Energy partnership with the US does not weaken but rather strengthens Bratislava's pro-Russian positions in European discussions. This model could become a template for other regional countries attempting to balance between Washington and Moscow, such as Hungary itself – the closest current “friend” of Slovakia.
Key news to follow:
1. Tens of thousands of citizens in over 400 towns rally in support of President Pavel
2. Poll shows 62% of Czechs support continuing the "ammunition initiative" for Ukraine
Analysis:
The mass mobilization by "Million Moments for Democracy" across over 400 towns transforms the conflict between President Pavel and the "Motorists" party into a nationwide confrontation over foreign policy. Following the 90,000-strong rally in Prague on February 1, the geographic scope of protests shows that opposition to Babiš's course is not limited to the capital but has broad regional support. Organization head Mikuláš Minář frames it clearly: "This is no longer about the president. This is about the path the Czech Republic will take."
The Kantar CZ poll records 62% support for continuing the "ammunition initiative" for Ukraine. Nearly 100% of opposition voters support the initiative, two-thirds of "Motorists" supporters, half of ANO's electorate, and only one-fifth of SPD voters. This reveals a deep split within the government coalition. Babiš's previous statements about possibly continuing the initiative "if others finance it" indicate a search for formal solutions without real Prague commitments.
Czechia is experiencing a classic confrontation between social mobilization and populist coalition power. President Pavel maintains symbolic legitimacy as representative of the majority's pro-Ukrainian sentiments. Meanwhile, the Babiš government systematically narrows space for Ukraine support through budget constraints and coalition dynamics. IESS notes that this model's stability will depend on "Million Moments'" ability to convert protest energy into political pressure. Current indicators point to a deepening gap between civil society and government.
Key news to follow:
1. Sejm almost unanimously passes amnesty for Polish citizens fighting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine
2. Minister Sikorski at Munich Conference demands a seat for Europe at the negotiating table
Analysis:
The nearly unanimous Sejm vote (406 for, 19 abstained, 4 against) for amnesty for Polish volunteers in Ukraine's Armed Forces shows rare cross-party consensus on Ukraine. The law exempts from criminal liability for foreign military service since April 6, 2014. It not only legalizes the status of Poles in Ukraine but creates legal precedent for the future. Opposition from only four deputies underscores the relatively low rate of marginality of anti-Ukrainian positions in the Polish parliament. This contrasts with Slovakia and Czechia, where populists often successfully block Ukraine support.
Minister Sikorski's speech at the Munich Conference articulates a new reality. His thesis that "American spending on this war over the past year has been almost zero" while Europeans "buy American weapons for Ukraine" changes the previous model where the US was the primary donor. The logic "if we pay – we deserve a seat at the table of peace talks" transforms the negotiation process. Sikorski also frames the war as a European security issue, citing the historical context of Russian aggression against Ukraine – from bans on Ukrainian-language books to the Holodomor.
However, the real impact of Poland's position remains limited. The Trump administration has created a negotiation format that nearly excludes Europe, which Zelenskyy publicly lamented. Sikorski's statement, though resonant, does not change the reality where Washington controls negotiations with Moscow. IESS assesses Poland's position as an attempt to set standards for future European engagement rather than a tool for current influence. The effectiveness of this strategy will depend on European state consolidation, which is not yet observed due to divergences between Warsaw, Prague, and Bratislava.