Key news to follow:
1. Attack on prominent political commentator Peter Schutz in Kosice
2. Robert Fico accused the EU of "inaction and hatred towards Russians"
3. Top officials of the country confirmed the final refusal of military aid to Ukraine and participation in the €90 billion loan
Analysis:
The attack on journalist Peter Schutz, known for his sharp criticism of the current government, is a symptom of the radicalization of Slovak society, fueled by the government's aggressive rhetoric against independent media. While the motives of the perpetrator are still being established, the context of Robert Fico's constant accusations against the press creates an atmosphere of impunity for violence against regime opponents. We see a dangerous parallel here with the tragic events of 2018, indicating a systemic rollback of freedom of speech and the physical vulnerability of democratic institutions in a country sinking deeper into authoritarianism.
Fico's latest outbursts against the European Union, in which he effectively solidifies with the Russian view of Western "russophobia," once again confirm Bratislava's departure from the pan-European consensus. Demands for Kaja Kallas's resignation and statements about Brussels' "helplessness" amid Trump's return demonstrate the Slovak PM's intention to become a key disruptor of European unity from within. This position is not just electoral populism, but an effort to dismantle the existing security architecture, where Moscow's interests become a higher priority for Bratislava than obligations to allies.
The joint statement by Pellegrini, Fico, and Rasi regarding the refusal of military aid and non-participation in the €90 billion macro-financial support for Ukraine effectively cements Slovakia's status as a "brake" on European initiatives. This is a direct threat to Ukraine's financial stability during a critical period, as it encourages other Eurosceptics to engage in similar sabotage. Despite claims of supporting EU accession, Bratislava's real actions are aimed at making this path as difficult and resource-deprived as possible.
Slovakia, under the leadership of the current constitutional trio, has transformed into the most toxic player in Central Europe, whose foreign policy is now based on a demonstrative disregard for Ukraine's needs. We foresee an intensification of the confrontation between Bratislava and Brussels, where Fico will try to convert his destructive position into domestic political points, even at the cost of the country's complete international isolation. The further stagnation of democratic freedoms, combined with the pro-Russian drift, makes Slovakia the primary source of risk for NATO's eastern flank this year.
Key news to follow:
1) Preserving the "ammunition initiative" and Babis's attempt to balance the course between Okamura and the "coalition of the willing."
2) Czechia and Slovakia resume intergovernmental consultations after a long hiatus
Analysis:
Andrej Babis's visit to Paris and his decision to keep the "ammunition initiative" under the operational management of his office is a strategic attempt by Kyiv and Czech pragmatists to save relations following Tomio Okamura's aggressive outbursts about a "junta." Babis does take necessary steps to preserve the Czech Republic's reputation in the eyes of Western allies, despite pressure from his radical coalition partners. This shows that even in complex political configurations, the Czech establishment realizes the benefit of being a leading logistical hub for Ukraine, although the rhetoric of "pensioners instead of weapons" will continue to dominate domestic discourse.
The resumption of intergovernmental consultations with Bratislava, which were frozen by the Fiala government over Ukraine, signals Babis's desire to restore "Visegrad unity" based on energy and economic selfishness. We might see a danger in the formation of a new bloc within the EU that will focus on bargaining with Brussels for energy benefits and emission quotas rather than on shared security goals. Returning to "business as usual" with Fico's Slovakia without any demands for changing its anti-Ukrainian course effectively legitimizes Bratislava's position in the eyes of regional partners.
The Czech Republic is in a state of fragile balance, with Babis trying not to become a "second Orban" but simultaneously taking steps toward the Slovak scenario at the beginning of 2026. Safe to say that Prague's further participation in supporting Ukraine will depend on the ability of Czech society and President Pavel to pressure the government, preventing populists from finally surrendering positions for the sake of domestic political peace. The risk is that Babis's "pragmatism" may gradually transform into complete passivity if pressure from the ultra-right wing of the coalition increases
Key news to follow:
1. Historical drop in support for accepting Ukrainian refugees in Polish society
2. Russian operation to discredit the Polish "ŻURAW" evacuation drone
Analysis:
CBOS poll data, showing that support for accepting refugees has dropped to 48%, is a critical signal of the success of the long-term strategy to undermine Polish-Ukrainian solidarity. This is a result of accumulated fatigue, economic pressure, and the effective work of external destructive narratives targeting the most vulnerable segments of the Polish population. All these factors create a dangerous foundation for politicians seeking to convert this pessimism into demands for reducing aid to Ukraine, which we consider a direct threat to the rear of a warring state.
The Russian agitprop campaign against the "ŻURAW" medical drone, cynically portrayed as a tool for "profiting from death," is a sophisticated example of a hybrid attack aimed at demoralizing both Polish manufacturers and Ukrainian aid recipients. Using advanced Polish equipment, created specifically to save soldiers, as a pretext for accusations of "cynical business" is intended to create an emotional barrier between nations. Such operations are designed for social media audiences prone to conspiracy theories and require immediate counteraction at the level of strategic communications of both states.
Poland remains the primary outpost today, but its resilience increasingly depends on information hygiene and the ability of politicians to ignore populist temptations. We predict that Russia will intensify attacks specifically on humanitarian and historically sensitive issues, trying to bring the level of rejection of Ukrainians to a critical point. The Institute assesses the current situation as one that requires a shift from passive observation to active shaping of a new agenda in relations, where security will be inseparable from public consent.