Key news to follow:
1. Confirms transfer of Russian agent to Ukraine.
2. Polish Defense Minister: The situation on the border with Belarus has worsened.
3. Hands over 5,000 Starlink systems to Ukraine.
Analysis: Poland confirmed the transfer to Ukraine of its citizen suspected of cooperation with Russia. The Security Service of Ukraine announced that “we are talking about a Russian agent from the entourage of Viktor Medvedchuk, presumably Kirill Molchanov”. Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak described the handover as a normal legal procedure and standard cooperation between legal states. Close cooperation between Poland and Ukraine in the field of security and countering the Russian agent network is a critical factor in countering the hybrid aggression of the Russian Federation, which extends much further beyond Ukrainian territory.
Polish Defense Minister Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh reported an aggravation of the situation on the border with Belarus. Migrants act more aggressively, using rocks, branches, and tools to break through barriers. Hundreds of attempts to illegally cross the border were recorded in one night. The Minister stressed that these actions are not aimed at seeking asylum, but at weakening Europe and Poland. The artificial migration crisis, which has been going on since the summer of 2021, is an element of the hybrid war of the Russian Federation against the EU, where Poland acts as the country of the first line of defense of common European borders.
Poland also handed over 5,000 Starlink Enterprise terminals to Ukraine to provide stable communications for the military and critical infrastructure. According to the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, they will help restore communication in the liberated regions and ensure the work of schools, medical institutions, social institutions, and energy facilities. In total, Ukraine received more than 50,000 terminals, of which the largest - 29,500 - came from Poland. The new generation of Starlink Enterprise terminals with powerful antennas provides fast and stable Internet for a significant number of users at the same time.
Analyzing these events, we see Ukrainian-Polish relations as the most constructive and strategically important in the history of bilateral cooperation. The extradition of the Russian agent indicates a high level of trust between the special services, and the migration crisis recalls that both countries are at the forefront of the confrontation with authoritarian regimes. The IESS believes that the Ukrainian government should be more actively involved in joint initiatives to resolve the migration crisis. The transfer of a significant number of Starlink terminals indicates Poland's deep understanding of the critical needs of Ukraine. We anticipate that further deepening of cooperation will become a determining factor both for Ukraine's success in countering Russian aggression and for the formation of a new security architecture in the region.
Key news to follow:
1. Guarantees monthly ammunition supplies to Ukraine until September 2025.
2. Exposes Russian spy, she will be expelled from the country.
3. Ready to invest 100 million euros in the renovation of Ukrainian hospitals.
Analysis: Within the framework of the Ukraine Facility program, the Czech Republic is ready to finance the modernization of 13 hospitals in seven regions of Ukraine. Minister of Health of Ukraine Viktor Lyashko said that the Czech Republic plans to invest 100 million euros to upgrade hospitals, of which 6 projects have been previously agreed. Among the institutions that will receive support are regional hospitals of war veterans in Lviv and Rivne, Volyn Regional Clinical Hospital, Kryvyi Rih City Hospital No. 5, City Clinical Hospital No. 16 in Dnipro, and Kyiv Regional Children's Hospital. Such a large-scale support for the medical infrastructure of Ukraine testifies to the strategic approach of the Czech Republic to humanitarian assistance, which is aimed not only at covering current needs but also at developing the sustainability of the medical system of Ukraine.
Also, the Czech government has added to the national sanctions list the Belarusian "journalist" Natalya Sudlyankova and her curator for military intelligence of Russia Alexei Shavrov. According to Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavski, Sudliankov is a key member of Russian military intelligence and has secretly worked for several Russian organizations in the Czech Republic for years. She must leave the country within 30 days, despite previously receiving asylum. At the direction of Shavrov, the "journalist" organized the publication of several articles in the Czech media, receiving tens of thousands of euros in cryptocurrency for this. The assets of both persons in the Czech Republic will be frozen, and entry into the country is prohibited. Prague will also offer to add them to the EU sanctions list.
Moreover, the Czech Ammunition Initiative has sufficient resources to ensure a monthly supply of ammunition to Ukraine by September 2025. Minister Lipavsky noted that this was made possible thanks to the contributions of Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, and Denmark. The initiative significantly affected the balance of power on the battlefield, reducing the ratio of shells between Ukrainian and Russian troops from 1:10 to 1:2. In 2024, the Czech industry supplied 1.5 million pieces of ammunition to Ukraine, of which half a million were large-caliber ammunition of 155 mm and 152 mm calibers.
The presented news is an example of a Ukrainian-Czech strategic partnership covering a wide range of areas of cooperation. Financing the modernization of hospitals testifies to the Czech Republic's long-term vision of restoring Ukraine, with a special focus on medical institutions serving veterans and civilians affected by the war. Decisive actions against agents of Russian influence confirm the Czech Republic's serious attitude to hybrid threats, which is especially important given Prague's historical experience in countering Russian special services. In our opinion, the Ukrainian special services should strengthen cooperation with Czech colleagues in identifying and neutralizing the Russian intelligence network. The unprecedented ammunition initiative demonstrates the Czech Republic's deep understanding of Ukraine's defense needs and readiness to mobilize international support. We predict that Ukrainian-Czech relations will continue to develop intensively, creating a model for imitation by other European partners of Ukraine.
Key news to follow:
1. New protests against pro-Russian law on public organizations are being planned in Slovakia.
2. Fico equated EU ambassadors who did not come to him with “small children”.
3. Fico’s political group proposes to put to a referendum the question of increasing defense spending.
Analysis: In about 30 cities of Slovakia, protests are held against changes to the law on public organizations, which experts call tracing paper on Russian practices. Protests under the slogan "No to Russian law" are planned in three dozen cities in Slovakia and six places abroad. In Bratislava, according to organizers, the action gathered 8-9 thousand people. Critics of the draft argue that the proposed amendments will limit the activities of non-governmental organizations, violate the right to privacy, increase the administrative burden, and contradict the Slovak constitution and European legislation. The government justifies the need for the law by the need to ensure transparency in the financing and functioning of public organizations.
Slovak PM Robert Fico invited Russian and Belarusian ambassadors to the event on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Bratislava from the Nazis, after which he expressed indignation that the diplomats of the European Union did not come. Among the guests of the event were Russian Ambassador Igor Bratchikov, Belarusian Ambassador Andrei Dapkyunas, representatives of the pro-Russian group "Brother for Brother" and other anti-Western figures. Fico said that the EU ambassadors refused to participate because he decided to invite Russian and Belarusian diplomats and equated these politicians with "small children." The Slovak prime minister also recalled a planned visit to Moscow in May and expressed his desire to "personally thank the Red Army for its contribution to the victory over fascism."
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that Slovak citizens should vote in a referendum on a European decision to increase defense spending. The MEP from Fico's Smer-SD party, Erik Kalinyak, proposed holding a referendum if there was no option for non-military use of these funds. He noted that spending only on weapons should receive the support of the population through a referendum. The representative of the party of the current president, Peter Pellegrini, called the corresponding plan of the European Commission for 800 billion euros "madness," arguing that weapons never contributed to greater security.
Analyzing the recent events in Slovakia, we keep observing a sharp deterioration in Ukrainian-Slovak, and generally European-Slovak relations since Fico’s return to power. The strengthening of anti-Western and pro-Russian rhetoric, the invitation of Russian diplomats to official events, and plans to visit Moscow indicate a targeted revision of Bratislava's foreign policy priorities. Attempts to limit the activities of civil society on the Russian model are of serious concern since it is non-governmental organizations that often counterbalance anti-democratic tendencies. The IESS underlines the need for Ukrainian diplomacy should engage more actively with the Slovak opposition and civil society, who remain supporters of both the European Union and Ukraine. Particular attention should be paid to refuting narratives about "spending on weapons instead of social needs," which are used to undermine support for EU defense initiatives. We predict further cooling of bilateral relations, which may lead to complications in energy transit and trade, but we believe that the Slovak society, which demonstrates its dissatisfaction with the pro-Russian course, remains an important ally of Ukraine.