Key news to follow:
1. Anti-Ukrainian presidential candidate in Poland has increased his position in the rating of trust in politicians.
2. Donald Tusk supported Ukraine and Zelensky after the scandal in the White House.
3. Poland announced the transfer of thousands more Starlink terminals to Ukraine.
Analysis: According to the latest IBRiS survey for Onet, the mayor of Warsaw and Polish presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski confidently tops the trust rating among Polish politicians with an indicator of 43.5%. This trend indicates the growing popularity of pro-European forces in Polish society. At the same time, an alarming signal for Ukrainian-Polish relations was the achievement of a personal record of trust by Slawomir Menzen (28.3%), a candidate from the "Confederation," known for his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. We at the IESS see this growth as a reflection of the gradual strengthening of right-wing sentiments in part of Polish society, which could potentially create additional challenges for bilateral relations in the future, especially if these forces strengthen their positions.
Indicative and strategically important for Ukrainian-Polish relations was the reaction of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to the scandal in the White House related to the disruption of the visit of President Vladimir Zelensky. Tusk's concise but eloquent message "Dear Zelenskyy, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone" demonstrates the immutability of support for Poland even in difficult diplomatic situations. This public position of the Polish government is extremely significant in the context of the complication of Ukraine's relations with the American administration. In fact, Warsaw signals its readiness to act as a strategic ally of Ukraine, regardless of Washington's position, confirming the autonomy of its own foreign policy.
Practical confirmation of this position was the statement of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of digitalization of Poland Krzysztof Gawkowski on the continuation of support for Starlink satellite communications in Ukraine. Warsaw's decision not only to continue financing existing systems, but also to purchase an additional 5,000 terminals testifies to the systemic nature of the assistance, its technological orientation and understanding of the critical importance of communication infrastructure for the sustainability of the Ukrainian front. It is worth noting that the Polish side clearly positions itself as a guarantor of Ukraine's technological security, even if this means confronting potential decisions of American corporations.
Analyzing the totality of these events, we assess the current state of Ukrainian-Polish relations as passing to a qualitatively new level of strategic partnership. Poland is increasingly manifesting itself not just as a friendly neighboring state, but as a key geopolitical ally of Ukraine in the region, ready to support its interests even if relations with the United States deteriorate. At the same time, the growing support of anti-Ukrainian forces in part of the Polish electorate indicates the existing internal challenges for the Tusk government's policy towards Ukraine.
The IESS believes that Ukrainian diplomacy should intensify contacts with Polish civil society and strengthen its information presence in Poland to neutralize anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. For its part, the Polish government demonstrates a pragmatic understanding that Ukraine's security is an integral part of Poland's own national security, which should be defended regardless of temporary political fluctuations.
Key news to follow:
1. Leader of Slovak National Party urges Ukraine to return €3.5 billion in aid provided by Slovakia.
2. Fico follows Orban in issuing ultimatums before the EU summit.
Analysis: The sharp statement of the leader of the nationalist "Slovak National Party" Andrei Danka about the demand for the return of 3.5 billion euros of assistance provided by the previous governments of Slovakia by Ukraine clearly illustrates the deepening of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric in the Slovak political discourse. Dunk's speculative assertions about Ukraine's alleged use of the conflict to obtain financial assistance and its embezzlement, as well as the deliberate avoidance of mentioning Russian aggression, qualifying the war as "events in Ukraine," demonstrate a dangerous reversal of the narrative regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war. Especially disturbing is the fact that such statements are heard from a representative of the party, which is part of the ruling coalition. IESS regards this as a deliberate distortion of reality in order to further develop the pro-Russian line in Slovak foreign policy.
The ultimatum demands of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to resume the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine and the threat to block the conclusions of the EU summit on March 6 are a direct continuation of his negative policy of supporting Ukraine. The statement that "Kyiv will never be strong enough to negotiate from a position of military strength" and the demand for "an immediate ceasefire regardless of the moment of reaching a final peace agreement" indicate the Slovak government's willingness to support Russian narratives and promote solutions beneficial to the Kremlin on the European stage. Particularly dangerous in Fico's rhetoric is the opposition of "European competitiveness" and support for Ukraine, which is aimed at splitting European unity.
We see obvious coordination between the positions of Dank and Fico, which indicates the systemic anti-Ukrainian policy of the current Slovak government. The existing trends give grounds to predict further aggravation of diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Slovakia. In fact, we are witnessing the further evolution of a cell of pro-Russian influence on the border with Ukraine, which can become a tool to undermine the unity of the European Union and NATO in supporting Ukraine.
We assume that Ukrainian (and European pro-Ukrainian) diplomacy should urgently develop a multi-level strategy for relations with Slovakia. On the one hand, it is necessary to maintain ties with opposition forces and civil society in Slovakia, which largely preserves pro-Ukrainian sentiments. On the other hand, it is worth involving European partners in neutralizing the destructive initiatives of the Fico government at the EU level. Aggravation of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric of Slovak politicians can lead to a significant deterioration of bilateral relations with unpredictable consequences for regional security and European unity. We consider it expedient to work out an action plan for the possible redirection of logistics and transport routes bypassing Slovakia in case of further deterioration of relations and potential restrictions by the Slovak government.
Key news to follow:
1. Czech Defence Ministry: Arms exports to Ukraine increased by a third in 2024
2. Czech Foreign Ministry says Putin spreads nonsense about Zelenskyy's "illegitimacy" because he's afraid of him.
Analysis: A strong statement by the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the groundlessness of Putin's statements about the "illegitimacy" of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demonstrates the unwavering position of Czech diplomacy in supporting Ukraine. The special value of this statement lies in its timing - on the third anniversary of the Russian full-scale invasion, when the information struggle for narratives about the causes and legitimacy of the war is of particular importance. The Czech Foreign Ministry clearly articulates a principled position on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including the Crimea and the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions, which is an extremely important signal for the international community about the inadmissibility of "freezing" the conflict on the current front lines. In this context, IESS notes the consistency and principle of the Czech position against the background of fluctuations of some other European states.
In parallel with diplomatic support, the Czech side demonstrates a tangible increase in practical assistance to Ukraine. The statement by Defense Minister Yana Chernokhova about the increase in exports of military equipment to Ukraine by at least a third over the past year confirms that the Czech Republic has become one of the key European suppliers of weapons for the Ukrainian army. Particularly significant is the Czech "shell initiative," in which last year 1.5 million units of large-caliber ammunition were delivered. The ability of the Czech Republic not only to provide its own weapons, but also to mobilize the resources of other donor countries, such as Canada, the Netherlands and Denmark, demonstrates Prague's proactive approach to the formation of an international coalition in support of Ukraine.
Analyzing the current state and prospects of Ukrainian-Czech relations, we predict their further progressive development and deepening. The Czech Republic consistently positions itself as one of Ukraine's most reliable allies in Central Europe, demonstrating a harmonious combination of political, diplomatic and military support. This position of Prague is of particular importance in the context of the pro-Russian policy of neighboring Slovakia and ambiguous signals from Hungary. The Czech Republic is actually becoming an "anchor of stability" in the Central European region, providing a reliable channel of support for Ukraine and countering Russian disinformation.
IESS assumes that the current level of Ukrainian-Czech relations creates favorable conditions for their deepening not only in the military sphere, but also in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine and its European integration. Ukrainian diplomacy should consider the possibility of attracting Czech experience in transforming post-socialist society and economy, as well as expanding bilateral cooperation in the field of cybersecurity, critical infrastructure and energy. Czech support for Ukraine is a strategically important element of European solidarity, which must be preserved and strengthened in the long term.
Key news to follow:
1. Poland and Latvia believe that it is up to Ukraine to decide with whom to conclude a mineral agreement
2. Czechs trust Zelenskyy more, Slovaks trust Putin more.
3. Czech and Slovak farmers protest at the border over imports from outside the EU.
4. The London summit identified support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the "first level" of Ukraine's security guarantees.
Analysis: The statement of the Presidents of Poland Andrzej Duda and Latvia Edgars Rinkevics on the right of Ukraine to independently decide with whom and what agreement to conclude in the context of the development of deposits of rare minerals signals an important trend in international politics. A key aspect of this position is the recognition of Ukraine's subjectivity and understanding of the relationship between economic arrangements and security guarantees. Noteworthy is Duda's emphasis on the need to ensure a "lasting peace that guarantees the existence of a sovereign and independent Ukrainian state," which emphasizes Warsaw's strategic vision for the future of Ukraine. At the same time, both leaders recognize the complexity of the current situation and view it through the prism of preparation for potential peace talks. In this context, we note the formation of a new approach in which economic cooperation becomes an instrument for ensuring security in the region.
The results of a survey by NMS Market Research on trust in international leaders in the Czech Republic and Slovakia reveal a deep gap in the perception of the Russian-Ukrainian war between these neighboring countries. Indicative is the fact that the Czechs trust President Zelensky much more (32%) than Putin (11%), while in Slovakia there is the opposite trend: 23% trust Zelensky against 28% confidence in Putin. These data illustrate the radical difference in public sentiment between the two countries, which directly affects their foreign policy. A worrying sign is that despite the lower support for Putin in both countries compared to their national leaders, Slovakia has a 5% difference between trusting the Russian dictator and the president of Ukraine in favor of Putin. This confirms the presence of a strong pro-Russian segment in Slovak society, which creates a fruitful basis for strengthening the existing anti-Ukrainian policy of the Fico government. Czech President Peter Pavel's call for a "broad coalition" of states to support a just peace in Ukraine is an important initiative that emphasizes the need to consolidate international efforts. Especially important is his clear position that "peace" under the conditions of the aggressor is a surrender that will only encourage further aggression. This statement demonstrates the Czech Republic's understanding of the strategic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war for the entire system of international security and its readiness to play an active role in its formation.
Preliminary agreements reached at the summit of state leaders in London on March 2 testify to the gradual formation of a multi-level system of ensuring Ukraine's security. The concept of "peace through force," which provides for the strengthening of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the first level of security guarantees, reflects a realistic approach to ensuring the sovereignty of Ukraine. Our expert vision is that the development of additional security guarantees besides the less and less real with the actual President Administration of the United States is a recognition of the key role of European unity in countering Russian aggression.
Analyzing the overall picture of international support for Ukraine, IESS notes the formation of two distinct approaches in the Central European region. On the one hand, Poland and the Czech Republic demonstrate strategic understanding of the threats of Russian aggression and readiness to provide Ukraine with comprehensive support. On the other hand, Slovakia, under the leadership of the Fico government, continues to drift towards a pro-Russian position, creating a potential split in regional unity. We believe that Ukrainian diplomacy needs to develop a differentiated approach to interaction with the countries of the region, making the most of the opportunities for cooperation with Poland and the Czech Republic, while looking for ways to neutralize Slovakia's destructive initiatives at the EU and NATO level.