Key news to follow:
1. Hungary and Slovakia have alternatives to oil and gas from Russia, but they only increase their dependence
2. Fico is ready to support a referendum on lifting sanctions against Russia
Analysis: We observe a distinctly continuing pro-Russian course in Slovakia's energy policy, which threatens not only the EU's consolidated position but also undermines Europe's strategic goals to reduce energy dependence on the Kremlin. Research by the Center for the Study of Democracy clearly demonstrates the existence of real alternatives to Russian energy sources for Bratislava, yet Fico's government deliberately maintains almost one hundred percent dependence on Moscow. Particularly cynical is the fact that Slovakia's exemptions from sanctions were preceded by justifications about needing time for diversification—instead, the country has become even more dependent on Russian energy resources. IESS considers it alarming that the funds paid to Russia by Slovakia, together with Hungary (over 5.4 billion euros), have effectively financed, for example, approximately 1,800 Iskander-M missiles that are used to destroy Ukrainian cities.
Moreover, recent statements by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico regarding his readiness to support a referendum on lifting sanctions against Russia also represent a logical continuation of his consistently pro-Russian stance. By comparing sanctions to a "plague" and claiming they are ineffective, the Slovak Prime Minister essentially repeats Kremlin narratives while ignoring objective data on the restrictions' impact on the Russian economy. We regard Fico's manipulation regarding "the first signs of negotiations" between Kyiv and Moscow, which are supposedly undermined by new sanctions, as particularly cynical. The openly pro-Russian position of the leader of an EU and NATO member country indicates a serious crack in European unity, which the Kremlin actively exploits for its own interests.
The combination of energy dependence and rhetoric about lifting sanctions creates a powerful challenge for European security. In our assessment, Slovakia's actions could become a precedent for other countries with pro-Russian sympathies and lead to erosion of the sanctions regime. Of particular concern is that Slovakia's position not only hampers EU policy but actively undermines Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression. IESS considers it necessary to increase pressure on Bratislava from both EU institutions and other European capitals to prevent Slovakia's further drift into the orbit of Russian influence and to protect the common European position on supporting Ukraine.
Key news to follow:
1. FM reacts to the tragedy in Bilopilla: "The Kremlin does not want peace. It wants war".
2. Sanctions pressure on Russia needs to be increased after talks in Turkey
Analysis: The reaction of Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský to Russia's latest war crime—the shelling of a civilian bus in Bilopillia— is principled and extremely important. The Czech diplomat demonstrated a deep understanding of the Kremlin's true intentions, highlighting the stark contrast between the negotiations in Istanbul and the simultaneous killing of Ukrainian civilians. Such a clear position from a representative of an EU member state is critically important for maintaining a consolidated European front against Russian aggression. IESS highly appreciates the consistency of Czech diplomacy, which does not succumb to Moscow's manipulative attempts to promote a narrative about "striving for peace" while deliberately continuing to attack Ukraine's civilian population.
Prime Minister Petr Fiala's statement regarding the need to strengthen sanctions pressure on Russia due to its destructive approach to negotiations logically complements the position of the Czech Foreign Ministry. The Czech Prime Minister's proposal for a new sanctions package in response to Moscow's bad faith in the negotiation process demonstrates strategic thinking and an understanding that only a combination of diplomatic efforts and economic pressure can force the Kremlin to change its behavior. It is especially valuable that the Czech government does not limit itself to declarative statements but proposes concrete mechanisms to influence the aggressor, emphasizing European states' unwillingness to tolerate Russian brutality.
Czechia's approach to the Russian-Ukrainian war remains an exemplary model of a rational and principled position by a European state that clearly distinguishes between aggressor and victim. Analyzing Czech policy, we note a striking contrast with the pro-Russian position of some other Central European countries, particularly Slovakia. IESS believes that the policy demonstrated by Prague is the most responsible from the perspective of long-term European security. The clarity of the Czech leadership's position on the need to strengthen sanctions and the inadmissibility of any concessions to an aggressor who continues to kill civilians creates a reliable foundation for further deepening the Czech-Ukrainian partnership and makes a significant contribution to strengthening the common European strategy for countering the Russian threat.
Key news to follow:
1. Prepares the 47th military aid package for Ukraine
2. Records increased illegal migration from Belarus
Analysis: Poland's consistent and substantial military support for Ukraine remains an exemplary demonstration of strategic understanding of regional security challenges. Warsaw demonstrates not only significant volumes of aid (approximately €4.5 billion in total) but also high-quality weaponry that makes a tangible contribution to Ukrainian forces' combat capabilities. Particularly important is the fact that the Polish side continues to increase its support even after three years of full-scale war, announcing a new aid package worth €200 million. We believe that Warsaw's position creates a powerful foundation for long-term security architecture in Central and Eastern Europe and indicates the Polish leadership's awareness of the direct link between Ukraine's resilience and their own national security.
The escalation of the artificial migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border indicates a coordinated hybrid operation by the Lukashenko and Putin regimes aimed at destabilizing the situation in the EU. The unprecedentedly high number of attempted illegal border crossings in recent days (over 500 people) and the aggressive behavior of migrants demonstrate the organized nature of this attack. IESS views these events as part of the Kremlin's systemic strategy to undermine the security of NATO and the EU's eastern flank using Belarusian territory. Particularly alarming is the fact that this attack occurs parallel to the intensification of hostilities on the Ukrainian front, indicating coordinated actions of the Russian-Belarusian alliance in different directions.
The developments around Poland clearly illustrate the dual-dimensional nature of current threats to European security—both military and hybrid. We believe that Warsaw's firm position regarding both support for Ukraine and protecting its own border from an artificial migration crisis deserves full support and enhanced solidarity from all EU and NATO member countries. In our opinion, the consistency and scale of Polish aid to Ukraine should serve as a benchmark for other European countries, especially against the background of pro-Russian sentiments among some EU members. In the context of Belarus's aggressive actions at the border, further strengthening of collective mechanisms for countering hybrid threats and increased sanctions pressure on the Lukashenko regime as an accomplice to Russian aggression is necessary.