Key news to follow:
1. Tusk: Ukraine, Europe, and the United States should participate together in peace negotiations.
2. Polish Foreign Minister: Trump's call to Putin was a mistake.
Analysis: Recent statements by Polish officials signal a qualitatively new stage in Warsaw's approach to the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Donald Tusk's series of phone calls with European leaders and President Zelenskyy is a clear signal: Poland is ready to act as a guarantor against behind-the-scenes agreements regarding Ukraine.
Particularly valuable is the Polish Prime Minister's position on the need for synchronized participation of Ukraine, Europe, and the USA in any peace initiatives – this effectively insures Kyiv against the risk of being left out of important geopolitical decisions.
The reaction of Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski to the phone conversation between Trump and Putin is noteworthy. The Polish diplomat did not limit himself to traditional diplomatic formulations but frankly called this contact a mistake that plays into the Kremlin's hands.
Moreover, his warning about the consequences of Ukraine's possible defeat for Taiwan's future demonstrates the influence of Russian aggression in the global context of nations` confrontation with imperialism. Particularly apt is Sikorski's remark about the “peace dividends” that Europe has enjoyed for too long – this is a case where Poland's experience of historical lessons could be valuable for the entire continent.
IESS suggests that Warsaw's current position on the format of peace negotiations will significantly strengthen the Ukrainian-Polish partnership. After all, a shared understanding of threats and mechanisms to overcome them is precisely the foundation that will help both countries overcome tactical and strategic differences in trade issues. At the same time, Ukrainian diplomacy should more effectively use Poland's support to promote its own interests in European capitals. Given the current dynamics, we predict enhanced coordination between Kyiv and Warsaw in the security sphere, especially in the context of joint counteraction to attempts to achieve “peace at any cost”.
Key news to follow:
1. Slovak PM says Slovakia has “moral right” in considering ways to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine.
2. Fico's revenge for friends of Ukraine: how the Slovak authorities are preparing to ban the opposition party.
Analysis: A dangerous scenario of a crackdown on the opposition is unfolding in Slovak government circles: Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gašpar, Prime Minister Fico's right-hand man, has already announced plans to ban the “Democrats” party.
The formal reason is absurd accusations of organizing an assassination attempt on Fico – the entire “evidence base” boils down to the fact that the attacker Juraj Cintula attended party events several times as an external activist. Although the “Democrats” lack parliamentary representation, their role as the locomotive of the protest movement and the campaign for early elections has made the party the main target of the government's repressive machine.
The directors of this political spectacle pursue several goals at once. On the domestic front, Fico's team seeks to divert attention from the catastrophic state of the government coalition, where every vote is worth its weight in gold. And in the geopolitical dimension – to take revenge on the “Democrats” and personally their leader Jaroslav Naď for the powerful military support of Ukraine during his leadership of the Ministry of Defense.
However, the Slovak authorities risk getting the opposite result: persecution of the opposition is already strengthening the position of the “Democrats” among voters, and the prospect of banning the party will inevitably activate a tough dialogue between Bratislava and Brussels.
Moreover, Fico's recent statement about Slovakia's “moral right” to stop gas transit to Ukraine is another step in his anti-Ukrainian campaign. We admit that such statements have a dual purpose: on the one hand, it's an attempt to play along with the Kremlin and weaken Ukrainian energy security, on the other hand – to mobilize the anti-Ukrainian electorate within the country on the eve of possible early elections.
It's noteworthy that the Slovak Prime Minister's rhetoric about the “high price” Ukraine will pay and accusations that the West is interested in the war almost literally repeats Kremlin narratives.
IESS predicts that further aggravation of Slovakia's internal political situation will have negative consequences for regional cooperation and European unity. Fico's attempts to suppress the opposition and his openly pro-Russian position create serious risks not only for Slovak democracy but also for the entire region of Central Europe.
At the same time, we believe that such radicalization may, of course, lead to increased civic resistance and consolidation of pro-European forces in Slovakia, especially against the background of the growing popularity of the “Democrats” party. For Ukraine, it is critically important to maintain the support of Slovak civil society and the pro-European opposition despite the destructive position of the current government.
Key news to follow:
1. Czech President and Foreign Minister explained to Kellogg the importance of helping Ukraine.
2. Czech General Staff: Russia will not become more friendly after the end of hostilities.
Analysis: The meeting between Czech President Petr Pavel and Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský with US envoy Kit Kellogg, which took place on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, highlights the Czech Republic's consistency in supporting Ukraine and consolidating international efforts to counter Russian aggression.
Notably, this meeting was the second within a week, emphasizing the intensity of Czech-American dialogue on Ukrainian issues. The discussion of arming Ukraine “to the extent that it can defend itself” and preventing future attacks indicates Prague's strategic vision regarding long-term security guarantees for Ukraine. The synchronization of positions among the highest Czech officials demonstrated a consensus in Czech politics regarding support for Ukraine and countering Russian aggression.
The statement by the Chief of the Czech General Staff, Karel Řehka, about the need to build up military potential even after the end of hostilities in Ukraine is an extremely important signal for the entire Central and Eastern European region. The recognition that Russia will not become “more friendly and predictable” reflects a realistic understanding of long-term threats to European security.
Particular attention is drawn to his skepticism about the possibility of achieving a settlement that would guarantee non-repetition of the war – this aligns with Ukrainian assessments of the need for systemic changes in the approach to the Russian threat. Significantly, the Czech military is planning a serious revision of its armed forces model, which correlates with Volodymyr Zelensky's expressed idea of creating European armed forces.
In our opinion, these events indicate the formation of a new paradigm in Ukrainian-Czech relations, based on a shared vision of security challenges and the need for a fundamental restructuring of the European security system. Prague is becoming not just an ally, but also an advocate for Ukraine in the European security dialogue, openly articulating threats that other capitals prefer to discuss more cautiously.
The Ukrainian side should more actively involve Czech partners in forming the concept of the future architecture of European security, taking into account Prague's pragmatic and realistic approach to assessing the Russian threat. For Ukraine, cooperation with the Czech Republic can become a powerful channel for promoting ideas on future security guarantees in EU and NATO institutions and/or membership into these organizations.
Key news to follow:
1. Tusk: Europe needs its own plan so that its future is not decided by global players.
Analysis: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's statement about the need to develop a European action plan for Ukraine reflects the growing awareness in European capitals of Ukraine's key role in the overall security architecture of the continent. This approach is extremely promising, as effective support for Ukraine today is an investment in the security of all of Europe tomorrow. If European states can consolidate efforts and provide Ukraine with everything necessary for victory, this will significantly reduce Russia's potential to pose a global threat to the region in the future. Particularly important is Tusk's emphasis on the urgency of such a plan, which indicates an understanding of the critical nature of the current moment for the future of the continent.
Thus, we emphasize a fundamental point: any peace plan regarding Ukraine must be developed with respect for Ukrainian sovereignty and the right to independently determine the conditions for establishing peace. Tusk's concern that, in the absence of a European initiative, the future will be decided by “other global players”, brings to the forefront not only the issue of supporting Ukraine but also ensuring its agency in international processes. The IESS is convinced that the most effective approach to forming a European action plan would be to develop it in close cooperation with Ukraine, taking into account the Ukrainian vision of conditions for a just and sustainable peace that would guarantee security not only for Ukraine but for the entire European space.