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Key news to follow:
1. Protests against Fico don't subside in Slovakia for the second month, he says he “won't resign” - what do people accuse Fico of and why is Ukraine mentioned?
2. Slovakia started importing Russian gas via TurkStream from February 1
Analysis: The IESS closely monitors the recent political upheaval in Slovakia, marked by unprecedented mass protests against Prime Minister Robert Fico's government. Nearly 100,000 people take to the streets in over 20 cities, with protesters loudly declaring "Fico to Russia!" and demanding the resignation of a government they, not without reason, perceive as increasingly pro-Russian and anti-Western for the second month straight.
Among the key factors behind the ongoing protests is that Fico's current administration has systematically undermined democratic institutions, dissolving the National Criminal Agency, intensifying pressure on media and civil organizations, and attempting to introduce Russian-style "foreign agent" legislation. The government's economic performance has been equally troubling, with Slovakia becoming one of the weakest economies in the Eurozone, experiencing the lowest GDP growth (1.7%) and highest inflation (4.3%) among Visegrad Group countries.
The political landscape of Slovakia remains uncertain. While Fico claims he will not resign, opposition parties actively seek to challenge his government. Current polling shows the opposition Progressive Slovakia and Fico's SMER-SD party polling nearly identically (23% and 22.2% respectively), indicating a divided political opposition, which is nevertheless united by battling against pro-Russian changes in Fico`s activity.
Also, starting from February 1st, the Slovak gas company SPP began importing Russian gas through the Turkish Stream pipeline, with plans to double these deliveries by the end of April. Despite ongoing contractual arrangements with Gazprom and lower transit fees, the company acknowledges the potential need to import gas through alternative routes due to insufficient Turkish Stream capacity.
We see Fico's strategy as a deliberate attempt to incrementally restore and deepen Slovakia's economic and political ties with Russia, effectively positioning the country as a “Trojan horse” within the European Union. His administration's actions — from energy contracts to diplomatic maneuvers — consistently demonstrate a calculated effort to undermine European unity and prioritize Russian interests.
However, the massive public protests reveal a fundamentally different national sentiment. Slovak citizens have unequivocally demonstrated their rejection of a pro-Kremlin trajectory, making it clear that Fico's vision does not represent the country's democratic aspirations. The grassroots movement represents a powerful reminder that despite governmental attempts to shift towards Russia, the Slovak people remain committed to European values, democratic principles, and resistance against authoritarian influences.
Key news to follow:
1. Ukraine and Poland signed an agreement on weapons production.
2. President Zelenskyy suggests that Belarus may soon enter war: Poland and the Baltic countries are also under threat.
Analysis: The emerging defense collaboration between Ukraine and Poland marks a pivotal moment in regional security architecture. A groundbreaking memorandum between the Ukrainian Defense Industry (Ukroboronprom) and the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ) delineates an unprecedented blueprint for military-industrial cooperation, transcending traditional bilateral agreements.
The memorandum's innovative scope encompasses multifaceted defense capabilities, from precision ammunition manufacturing to sophisticated armored vehicle maintenance and integrated air defense systems. By strategically aligning with European defense funding mechanisms, both nations are crafting a forward-looking approach to technological and military preparedness.
We interpret these developments as a strong geopolitical response to incremental Russian aggression. The defense collaboration represents an adaptive, proactive mechanism that transforms historical regional tensions into a cohesive security framework, effectively neutralizing potential external threats through institutional resilience and shared strategic vision.
By constructing integrated defense capabilities, Ukraine and Poland are not merely protecting their immediate national interests, but fundamentally reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe. This partnership signals a definitive rejection of revisionist narratives and a commitment to collective security, democratic values, and territorial integrity.
In the meantime, President Zelenskyy's geopolitical assessment carries substantial credibility, grounded in Belarus's history of provocative actions. Not rare incidents along Lithuanian and Polish borders, including orchestrated migrant crises and deliberate diplomatic tensions, substantiate concerns about Belarusian potential for escalation. Ukraine's President's statement is a strategic communication aimed at reinforcing Ukrainian-Polish security cooperation, highlighting the persistent threat posed by the pro-Russian Belarusian regime.
Key news to follow:
1. Czech Republic wants to join the EU case against Hungary at the Court of Justice of the European Union.
2. Lipavsky: Czech Republic and the US agree on a common position on Russia, China, and Middle East.
Analysis: The Czech Republic's recent diplomatic actions reveal a robust commitment to European democratic principles and strategic international partnerships. In a significant move, Prague has requested to join the European Commission's legal action against Hungary, challenging Viktor Orban's controversial "national sovereignty protection" law that threatens fundamental democratic norms.
The Hungarian legislation, which establishes a special service to investigate potential "threats to national sovereignty," represents a blatant attempt to suppress democratic opposition and limit foreign influence. The Czech Republic's intervention signals a principled stance against authoritarian practices with a "Kremlin’s taste" within the European Union, demonstrating its role as a defender of democratic values and institutional integrity.
In parallel, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky's Washington discussions underscore the Czech Republic's proactive international positioning. His meetings with US congressional leaders emphasized a unified approach towards critical global challenges, including Russian aggression, Middle Eastern tensions, and Chinese expansionism. The Czech commitment to allocating 2% of GDP to defense, with potential future increases, demonstrates a pragmatic approach to collective security. By actively challenging anti-democratic trends within the EU and reinforcing transatlantic security partnerships, the Czech Republic positions itself as a key progressive voice in Central European geopolitics.
The Czech approach represents a calculated effort to strengthen democratic institutions, support Ukraine, and maintain a clear, principled stance against authoritarian encroachment. IESS emphasizes that by engaging simultaneously on legal, diplomatic, and defense fronts, the Czech Republic emerges as a critical stabilizing force in the evolving European security framework in terms of decreasing Russian impact on it.
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