Analytics by IESS
IESS Statement: Orbán and propaganda against Ukraine
April 11, 2026
How Zelenskyy became an instrument of electoral manipulation, and Ukrainians a target for justifying autocracy.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 30 - April 5
April 6, 2026
The first days of April sharpened patterns already visible in preceding weeks. In Slovakia, the leaked Blanár-Andrejev transcript would move Bratislava's accommodation of Moscow from the realm of rhetoric into documented diplomatic coordination, a threshold the region has not previously crossed. The Czech Republic illustrated how governing credibility erodes on multiple fronts simultaneously: energy lectures abroad, constitutional friction at home. Poland remained the region's most coherent strategic voice while also its most exposed pre-electoral arena, its pro-Atlantic consensus increasingly contingent on partners it can observe but not control.
IESS Statement: Juraj Blanár’s personal contacts with Russia are a systemic vulnerability bordering on treason
April 3, 2026
Any contacts with the Russian ambassador under the current circumstances cannot be regarded as a neutral diplomatic gesture. After Russia’s full-scale invasion, its systematic violation of the UN Charter and international humanitarian law, as well as its years-long campaign of disinformation and political influence in Europe, such contacts do not signify “pragmatism,” but rather the normalization of an aggressor state and tolerance of its messaging.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 23 - March 29
March 30, 2026
The last week of March exposed the region's fault lines in sharp relief. Slovakia is running a controlled escalation: Fico's threats are real enough to register in Brussels, but structural dependency keeps them short of the point of no return. The Czech Republic is paying the price for trading security spending for social popularity, with the Pardubice attack making that trade-off impossible to ignore. Poland remains the most strategically coherent actor in the region, yet both the barrier decision and the Polexit debate are quiet reminders that even the firmest pro-Western commitments rest on foundations that require maintenance — not merely declarations.
IESS Statement: city names aren't just a matter of spelling. They are a matter of freedom
March 25, 2026
The IESS considers Lukáš Machala’s statements to be a dangerous normalization and a deliberate promotion of imperial narratives in the Slovak public space. When a representative of the STVR Council effectively demands that journalists adhere to forms that, for millions of Ukrainians, are markers of Russian dominance, he is not defending the Slovak language. He is assisting a policy of erasure. The real defense of one’s language begins not with punishing for “Kyjiv”, but with refusing to serve a foreign empire.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 16 - March 22
March 23, 2026
Slovakia has turned the Druzhba pipeline into a full-fledged pressure instrument, testing how much the EU can absorb from a member state openly coordinating with Hungary against the common position on Ukraine. In the Czech Republic, the government dismantles anti-Russian defences against the backdrop of the first attack on defence manufacturing, while society responds with mass protests. Poland remains the region's most strategically coherent actor – alert to Washington's rhetorical drift on NATO, yet clear-eyed about its own interests and willing to defend them through both legal and diplomatic means.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 9 - March 15
March 16, 2026
The week of 9–15 March sharpened contradictions that have long defined Central European politics. Slovakia is aligning itself with Kremlin priorities with growing openness – from lobbying to delist oligarchs to pressuring Kyiv over Druzhba – even as Fico's actual strategic calculus remains more constrained than his rhetoric suggests. The Czech Republic is splitting along a fault line between a president who gravitates toward European liberal norms and a government that is reaching for illiberal instruments. Poland, despite the institutional standoff over SAFE, retains a broad public consensus on rearmament that its neighbours cannot match.
The War Began on 20 February 2014
March 10, 2026
In our explainer, we trace how Russia’s war against Ukraine unfolded long before the full-scale invasion of 24 February 2022. It follows the trajectory from the Revolution of Dignity and the occupation of Crimea through the hybrid war in Donbas, the evolution of Kremlin propaganda, and the escalation into Europe’s largest war since World War II. Along the way, it shows how narratives about “coups,” “Nazis,” elections, the church, and demonization of Ukrainian leaders were weaponized to justify aggression and later evolved into modern influence operations powered by digital networks, FIMI techniques, and AI-driven manipulation. This is not simply a campaign against Ukrainian statehood and agency, but an act of war against Europe. As Russia finalized its wartime mobilization model and prepares the capacity for further escalation, the war is unlikely to end quickly and will likely expand beyond its current form.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 2 - March 8
March 9, 2026
The first week of March deepened the divides that have long defined Central European politics around the war. Slovakia moved from implicit signalling to open blackmail: Fico publicly offered to inherit Budapest's blocking role at the EU level, removing any remaining ambiguity about Bratislava's strategic alignment with Moscow. The Czech Republic remains caught between a Senate that looks to Ukraine as a security model and a government whose budget priorities are driven by polling rather than alliance commitments. Poland, despite domestic tensions over migration and nuclear deterrence, holds a strategic course that continues to set Warsaw apart from the rest of the region. The three countries are not simply at different points on the same spectrum – they are operating from fundamentally different assumptions about what the Russian threat requires of them.
CEE Monitoring Digest: February 23 - March 1
March 2, 2026
The last week of winter drew a sharper line between the two poles of Central European politics around Ukraine. Slovakia’s Fico deepened his alignment with Orbán’s playbook, weaponising the Druzhba dispute for domestic purposes while obstructing EU-level solidarity mechanisms. The Czech Republic occupies an uncomfortable middle ground: a meaningful contributor to Ukraine’s ammunition supply on one hand, retreating from NATO defence commitments on the other. Poland, by contrast, raised its voice clearly, treating the Russian threat not as a distant European problem but as a direct security challenge that demands active preparation.
CEE Monitoring Digest: February 16 - February 22
February 23, 2026
The fourth anniversary of the Russian full-scale invasion became a litmus test for the entire region. Slovakia and Hungary are increasing pressure on Ukraine in tandem. Czechia is looking in two directions at once: the president and the streets stand with Kyiv, while the government chips away at the conditions for meaningful support. Poland, facing the Russian threat at its own doorstep, keeps countering Russian intelligence operations and continues contributing military assistance to Ukraine. Three countries in a region strategically vital for keeping Russia in check find different answers to the same question, making Central Europe increasingly difficult to describe as a coherent whole.
CEE Monitoring Digest: February 9 - February 15
February 16, 2026
This week captures three parallel trajectories unfolding across Central Europe: Slovakia combines pro-Russian rhetoric with American energy partnership, gaining Washington's legitimization; Czechia balances between mass civic mobilization and governmental narrowing of Ukraine support; Poland demonstrates rare consensus on Ukraine but faces marginalization in the US-controlled negotiation format. Rubio's visit to Bratislava and Budapest signals an American strategy of selective rapprochement with conservative leaders regardless of their Ukraine positions, allowing states like Slovakia to simultaneously advance pro-Russian positions and deepen transatlantic partnership without political consequences. The region moves toward formation of divergent coalitions: a pro-Ukrainian bloc led by Poland and the Baltics, a pro-Russian Bratislava-Budapest axis, and Czechia in a state of domestic political uncertainty where the outcome of confrontation between society and government will determine Prague's future position.
CEE Monitoring Digest: February 2 - February 8
February 9, 2026
Early February reveals accelerating Central European fragmentation through differential responses to combined pressures. Slovakia constructs legal barriers against Ukraine assistance via criminal investigations and presidential delegitimization of previous transfers. The Czech Republic exhibits a deepening disconnect between sustained civil society support and governmental retrenchment driven by coalition priorities. Poland maintains principled Ukrainian support yet navigates internal contradictions through presidential Peace Council ambitions. External pressures, including State Department funding of populist movements and Peace Council membership demands, compound vulnerabilities by legitimizing positions divergent from European consensus. Present indicators suggest continued fragmentation with implications for democratic resilience under compound pressure.
CEE Monitoring Digest: January 26 - February 1
February 2, 2026
The end of the first month of 2026 confirms accelerating Central European fragmentation through differential vulnerability rather than uniform collapse. Slovakia's legal warfare against Brussels energy policy, Czechia's subordination of Ukrainian assistance to coalition blackmail dynamics, and Poland's resilience under coordinated hybrid pressure demonstrate how Moscow exploits populist governance and institutional weakness to fragment what was initially robust regional solidarity. The critical question entering February is whether remaining resistance, particularly Warsaw's coherent threat assessment and Czech institutional checks on governmental dysfunction, can sustain effective policy amid intensifying Russian operations and declining Western focus on Central European developments.
CEE Monitoring Digest: January 19 - January 25
January 26, 2026
Late January records the crystallization of distinct pathways within Central Europe. Slovakia has completed its transformation into an active instrument of Russian hybrid warfare, using energy dependency to constrain Ukrainian self-defense while performing symbolic solidarity. The Czech Republic exhibits dangerous fragmentation, where presidential rhetoric increasingly contrasts with governmental sabotage as the Babiš coalition advances the "Slovak model" of blocking concrete assistance. Poland maintains substantive support through both official channels and civil society mobilization, yet faces its gravest strategic dilemma in Trump's Peace Council, where Washington's attempt to legitimize Moscow creates an impossible choice between Atlantic partnership and European principles.
CEE Monitoring Digest: January 12 - January 18
January 19, 2026
Mid-January 2026 records alarming dynamics in Central Europe. Fico’s rhetoric assumes open solidarity with the Kremlin, while his meeting with Trump further extends the precedent for advancing Russian positions. Simultaneously, the Czech Republic demonstrates dangerous ambiguity, where Pavel’s well-intentioned statements on "painful concessions" weaken Kyiv's negotiating position. Meanwhile, Poland is still the main target of Russian hybrid, disinformation, and cyberattacks aimed at destabilizing Ukraine's rear.
CEE Monitoring Digest: January 5 - January 11
January 12, 2026
Fico’s Slovakia behaves as “a destructive player in the big team, Babis’s Czechia balances between loyalty to the West and regional selfishness, and Poland faces the historical challenge of losing public support for Ukraine. IESS emphasises on these trends as a serious threat to the strategic depth of Europe's defense: while Moscow attacks the information field with fakes about "business on death," European capitals increasingly prefer domestic peace over collective responsibility. Without a decisive counteraction to these processes, the eastern flank risks turning into a zone of fragmented interests, which is the ideal scenario for further aggression.
CEE Monitoring Digest: December 29 - January 4
January 5, 2026
The beginning of 2026 records a dangerous shift in Central Europe toward destructive populism and the erosion of solidarity. Slovakia has once again shown open hostility to Ukraine at the ministerial level, the Czech Republic is at the epicenter of an internal struggle to purge the new government of pro-Russian elements, and Poland has begun to convert security support into a tool of historical pressure. The Institute evaluates these trends as a serious threat to the West's consolidated position: while Russia strengthens its hybrid influence through AI-disinformation and populist speakers, European capitals are increasingly prioritizing domestic political points over collective security.
CEE Monitoring Digest: December 22 - December 28
December 29, 2025
The balance of power in Central Europe has shifted decisively against Ukraine. Bratislava openly drifts toward Moscow, responding passively to damage of its own vessel while dismantling oversight mechanisms that exposed government corruption. Prague stands at a crossroads: courts defend pro-Ukrainian activism, yet Babiš delays crucial decisions on ammunition supplies behind claims of fighting corruption. Warsaw alone maintains strategic coherence, though rising support for pro-Russian extremists and Moscow's flagrant disregard for diplomatic norms reveal vulnerabilities even in Europe's most reliable partner. The critical question remains whether Brussels will finally move beyond diplomatic statements to concrete sanctions against member states undermining collective security, or continue enabling the Kremlin's consolidation of influence at Europe's core.
CEE Monitoring Digest: December 15 - December 21
December 22, 2025
This week demonstrated the deepening divide in Central Europe regarding support for Ukraine. Slovakia has definitively transformed into an active saboteur of European solidarity, preparing to legitimize the Belarusian regime with Fico's visit to Minsk and categorically refusing military aid to Kyiv. Mass protests of Slovak society show that resistance to authoritarian drift exists, but so far remains without adequate response from Brussels. Czechia is entering a period of uncertainty under Andrej Babiš's leadership, whose rhetoric is gradually shifting from unconditional support for Ukraine to "pragmatic" calculations and support for Trump's "peace initiatives," which in practice may mean curtailment of military aid. Only Poland maintains strategic clarity, although the growth of xenophobic attitudes toward Ukrainians creates dangerous internal pressure. The critical question remains the European Union's ability to cease limiting itself to soft rhetoric and move to real mechanisms of influence on member states that sabotage the consolidated position on Russian aggression.
CEE Monitoring Digest: December 1- December 7
December 8, 2025
This week showed the accelerating fracture in the Central European approach to Russian aggression. While Slovakia's president openly declares military aid to Ukraine "only prolongs conflict" and Fico attempts to purchase Czech complicity through a multimillion-euro corruption scheme, Prague slides toward a similar trajectory under Babiš's forming government. Meanwhile, Poland, facing Facebook disinformation campaigns and growing regional isolation, remains the lone voice recognizing hybrid warfare for what it is. The question isn't whether Brussels will act, but whether it can before Central Europe's pro-Russian axis becomes irreversible.
CEE Monitoring Digest: November 24 - November 30
December 1, 2025
This week exposed the paradox of Central European security: while Warsaw untangles networks of Russian spies and hackers on its own territory, Bratislava methodically destroys institutions that could expose similar activity in Slovakia. Fico punishes whistleblowers for effectiveness, Okamura receives immunity for inciting hatred, and Poland spends a billion euros on cybersecurity while neighbors effectively open side doors for Moscow's operations. The greatest irony lies in Slovak schoolchildren with chalk and Czech activists with Ukrainian flags demonstrating more strategic threat understanding than their premiers. Brussels observes member states consistently sabotaging European security, yet continues choosing diplomatic notes over effective sanctions – an approach guaranteeing only crisis deepening.
CEE Monitoring Digest: November 10 - November 16
November 17, 2025
This week's analysis tracks the accelerating divergence across Central Europe's security postures. While Poland maintains strategic support despite mounting populist pressure, Czechia's new government systematically dismantles the ammunition initiative under bureaucratic pretexts, and Slovakia completes its transformation into active Kremlin collaboration. The IESS examines how electoral legitimacy in Prague and Bratislava is being weaponized to paralyze European unity, why symbolic gestures – from flag removals to presidential rhetoric – signal substantive policy shifts, and what it means when Russia's hybrid warfare finds more success through democratic processes than military pressure. Three countries, three trajectories, one conclusion: the regional consensus that has been held since 2022 is fracturing in real time.
CEE Monitoring Digest: November 3 - November 9
November 10, 2025
This week in Central Europe, a clear trend continued to emerge toward re-evaluating policies of support for Ukraine. In Slovakia, Robert Fico’s government continues to distance itself from Kyiv, promoting rhetoric of “peace through negotiations” and scaling back military assistance. In the Czech Republic, newly elected Speaker Tomio Okamura symbolically removed the Ukrainian flag from parliament, turning a gesture of solidarity into one of political separation, while his alliance with Andrej Babiš’s ANO movement lays the groundwork for a broader foreign policy shift. In Poland, internal disputes over the Volhynia tragedy and warnings from Brussels about “Ukraine fatigue” illustrate how historical and political factors are shaping the strategic partnership.
CEE Monitoring Digest: October 27 - November 2
November 2, 2025
The Budapest-Bratislava-Prague axis remains more aspirational propaganda than operational reality, though Orban's public efforts to construct this narrative pose their own danger to EU mechanisms for supporting Ukraine. Brussels confronts a structural dilemma: Article 7 was conceived to address outlier behavior, not systematic coordination among multiple member states exploiting institutional vulnerabilities to undermine collective security policy. Poland stands increasingly isolated as the sole major regional power maintaining principled opposition to Russian aggression, yet no single country can indefinitely shoulder this burden alone. Assuming electoral cycles will naturally correct this drift ignores reality – democratically elected governments are actively legitimizing realignment toward Moscow's sphere of influence. Brussels and Washington must choose: either forge concrete tools for containing internal sabotage through targeted economic and political measures, or resign themselves to watching critical Ukraine-related decisions blocked not by external adversaries but by actors operating from within the alliance itself.
CEE Monitoring Digest: October 20 - October 26
October 27, 2025
Slovakia has crossed into active Kremlin collaboration, the Czech Republic teeters on the edge with Babiš's government likely following Bratislava's path, while Poland stands nearly alone, maintaining principled support and preparing for scenarios most capitals refuse to contemplate. The Institute assesses that Brussels faces a genuine crisis—either develop mechanisms to neutralize internal sabotage from pro-Russian member states, or accept paralysis on critical security issues as the new normal. The clock is ticking, and neither option offers comfort.
CEE Monitoring Digest: October 13 - October 19
October 20, 2025
Bratislava openly befriends Moscow, pro-Russian structures build parallel intelligence services, while Slovakia and Hungary annually finance the Russian army with 4 billion euros through oil imports. In Prague, Babiš attempts to form a government with far-right parties and scandalous candidates, though President Pavel blocks the process. Warsaw suffers from a massive Kremlin disinformation attack – fake Ukrainian murders in Krakow and Moscow exhibitions about "Polish Russophobia" – but firmly defends Ukrainians and openly confronts the Hungarian MFA in the Nord Stream case. Brussels must choose between tough action against the pro-Russian lobby within the EU or complete capitulation to authoritarian revanche.
CEE Monitoring Digest: October 6 - October 12
October 13, 2025
The Central EU region is increasingly splitting into two camps – countries like Poland and Czechia that understand the existential nature of the threat and are ready to pay a real price for supporting Ukraine, versus governments of Slovakia that methodically sabotage European unity for short-term gains. Most dangerous is that Moscow no longer passively waits for the West to collapse on its own – it actively accelerates this process through tripling resources for cyberattacks, coordinated information operations and bribing politicians and media. The Kremlin plays the long game, understanding it doesn't need to win on the battlefield – it's enough to exhaust European societies with fakes about "Ukrainian threats" and attacks on critical infrastructure.
CEE Monitoring Digest: September 29 - October 5
October 6, 2025
The last seven days brought alarming news for Central European security. Robert Fico openly stated his government doesn't aim for Russia's defeat, calling the Russian war of aggression a "Slavic conflict," while his agriculture minister alarms Brussels with Ukrainian import figures, masking political betrayal with economic pressure. In Czechia, Babiš's victory became reality, and forming a coalition with extremists could create a populist pro-Russian triangle, Budapest-Bratislava-Prague. President Pavel issued an ultimatum, but elections revealed massive Russian interference through 300 TikTok accounts and cyberattacks. Poland emerged as the epicenter of Kremlin hybrid warfare: GRU prepared terrorist attacks with explosives camouflaged as canned corn across three NATO countries, while information operations around Jureczkowa exhumations aimed to undermine Polish-Ukrainian relations. Read our analysis of how Moscow attacks Europe's heart while Brussels remains silent.
CEE Monitoring Digest: September 22- September 28
September 29, 2025
Last week kept the former trend in regional approaches to Russian aggression. Slovakia blocked another EU sanctions package due to energy dependence while Kyiv offers alternatives to break from Russian resources. The Czech Republic balances between President Pavel's principled UN stance and growing Russian information influence before elections. Poland plays a double game: successfully repelling Russian provocations and deepening cooperation with Ukraine, yet preparing controversial anti-Ukrainian symbolism legislation, risking alliance fractures precisely when Moscow seeks to undermine Western unity.
CEE Monitoring Digest: September 15 - September 21
September 22, 2025
This week's developments across Central Europe reveal a region in profound transformation: Slovakia faces massive protests against Fico's pro-Russian pivot while simultaneously targeting Ukrainian agricultural exports at the EU Council, the Czech Republic witnesses unprecedented diplomatic tensions as Minister Rakušan's appearance at Slovak opposition rallies coincides with election frontrunner Babiš's careful distancing from Moscow, and Poland accelerates its evolution from conflict observer to active security participant with 81% of citizens viewing Russian drone attacks as deliberate provocations and unprecedented military cooperation with Ukraine reshaping NATO's eastern flank strategy. IESS analysis shows how these interconnected crises are fracturing the Visegrad Group and creating new geopolitical alignments that could fundamentally alter European security architecture.
CEE Monitoring Digest: September 8 - September 14
September 15, 2025
Slovak PM Fico meets with Putin amid mass protests in Bratislava, while his foreign minister dismisses Russian drones over Poland as mere "accidents" – a stark contrast to Czech officials who categorically reject such rhetoric and demand stronger sanctions. Meanwhile, Poland becomes the epicenter of revolutionary changes in European security: after the first-ever drone attack on a NATO member's territory, Polish military personnel head to Ukraine to learn drone interception techniques, while European partners show greater readiness for decisive action than Trump's America. The paradox is clear – Russian provocations simultaneously expose the crisis of American leadership and birth a new autonomous European response to Kremlin threats, from civil society protests in Slovakia to practical air defense cooperation between Poland and Ukraine.
CEE Monitoring Digest: September 1 - September 7
September 8, 2025
Slovak Premier Robert Fico executed an unexpected pivot from pro-Russian positions to supporting Kyiv's European perspective, leaving Viktor Orban in splendid isolation. Meanwhile, Gašpar compensated for such a move by comparing Ukraine to the terrorist organization Hamas, revealing deep fractures within the Slovak government. The Czech Republic doubled its Ukraine reconstruction funding and openly called Putin "a coward," but upcoming elections threaten a radical course change. In Poland, rising Euroscepticism has reached a critical point: a majority of Poles have opposed supporting Ukraine's NATO accession for the first time, while President Nawrocki continues blocking social assistance to Ukrainian refugees, creating an institutional crisis with the Tusk government.
CEE Monitoring Digest: August 25 - August 31
August 31, 2025
Slovakia is secretly returning to Russian oil and resuming visa issuance to Russians, Czech populist Babiš is preparing to cancel the ammunition initiative for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the new Polish president has blocked aid to Ukrainian refugees for the first time since the war began. Meanwhile, Prague's foreign minister calls for preparing new sanctions against the Kremlin, but his voice may drown in the chorus of populist parties leading in pre-election polls. Will this August become a turning point when Ukraine's closest allies begin turning away from it under pressure of domestic politics and war fatigue?
CEE Monitoring Digest: August 18 - August 24
August 25, 2025
Diplomatic chaos engulfs the region ahead of critical decisions: Slovakia's Deputy Defense Minister calls it "hypocritical" to ban private arms sales to Ukraine while Fico prepares to sue the EU over Russian gas losses and transforms the country into Moscow's fifth column.
Czech President Pavel openly urges against voting for parties advocating NATO and EU withdrawal, Prague considers sending troops to Ukraine as security guarantees, while activists hang banners showing Putin alongside populist politicians.
Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski insists on pressuring the aggressor rather than the victim, but Warsaw skips crucial Trump meetings due to internal contradictions and officially refuses to send troops to Ukraine, losing its role as Kyiv's leading defender.
CEE Monitoring Digest: August 11 - August 17
August 18, 2025
From Bratislava to Warsaw, a real drama of European solidarity with Ukraine is unfolding - and not always with a happy ending. While Slovak Fico almost literally repeats Putin's mantras about "root causes of war" and local newspapers dream of reclaiming Subcarpathia, Prague populists are preparing to tear down Ukrainian flags from government buildings immediately after elections. The biggest intrigue remains Poland: formally Warsaw guarantees Kyiv complete freedom of choice, but the internal crisis over radical president Nawrocki could destroy all strategic plans. Who will win this battle for Central Europe's soul - pro-Ukrainian forces or Putin's influences?
CEE Monitoring Digest: August 4 - August 10
August 11, 2025
Three nations at the heart of Europe reveal how Moscow's shadow war adapts to exploit each country's unique vulnerabilities and political fractures. Slovakia's descent into conspiratorial politics reaches new depths as Fico weaponizes fabricated British interference claims while simultaneously bypassing democratic oversight for massive nuclear contracts worth billions. Czech diplomacy turns Russian intimidation tactics on their head, transforming inclusion in "Russophobe" catalogs into badges of honor while quietly revolutionizing defense cooperation through groundbreaking joint production initiatives with Ukraine. Poland unveils the staggering scope of Russian infiltration—a multinational spy network spanning continents—yet faces the paradox of rising anti-immigrant sentiment that could undermine the very social cohesion needed to counter genuine security threats.
CEE Monitoring Digest: July 28 - August 3
August 3, 2025
Democratic institutions of the EU face their most sophisticated stress test since the Cold War, as hybrid warfare tactics collide with domestic political turbulence across key regional powers. Slovakia's political landscape has descended into a surreal theater where accusations of British election interference alternate with secretive nuclear deals worth billions, exposing the contradictions of anti-Western rhetoric paired with Western technological dependence. Prague transforms diplomatic provocations into strategic advantages, turning Russian "Russophobe" lists into symbols of principled resistance while pioneering innovative defense partnerships that blur traditional donor-recipient relationships. Poland emerges as the epicenter of this continental struggle, where successful counterintelligence operations against extensive Russian networks unfold alongside dangerous populist mobilization campaigns that threaten to weaponize legitimate security concerns for electoral gain.
CEE Monitoring Digest: July 21 - July 27
July 27, 2025
Europe's historical crossroads have become a battleground for Ukraine's future, where loyalty and treachery dance in unexpected patterns. Slovakia's descent into Moscow's gravitational pull reaches alarming depths—beyond mere energy dependence, a staggering portion of its citizens now fantasize about Russian passports while their government prepares to bankroll Putin's war machine through gas purchases extending to 2026. Meanwhile, Prague emerges as an unlikely hero in this continental drama, weaponizing its industrial prowess for Ukraine's cause while its citizens launch crowdfunding campaigns that put government aid programs to shame. But it's Warsaw where the highest stakes unfold—Tusk's embattled coalition watches helplessly as populist forces gain ground, threatening to topple the very pillar upon which Ukraine's European dreams have rested.
CEE Monitoring Digest: July 14 - July 20
July 21, 2025
There are critical crossroads in Europe that could fundamentally reshape Ukraine's support network in its battle against Russian aggression. While Slovakia's Robert Fico essentially holds EU sanctions hostage in exchange for energy compensation deals, Czech leadership charts an independent course by rejecting Trump's proposed weapons procurement framework for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Poland witnesses a troubling surge of radical sentiment as anti-Ukrainian firebrand Grzegorz Braun captures over a million votes in presidential elections, coinciding with nationwide anti-immigration demonstrations that threaten to blur the lines between legitimate security concerns and dangerous xenophobia. These converging developments expose the fragile foundations of European unity and signal potential storm clouds gathering over Ukraine's strategic partnerships in the region.
CEE Monitoring Digest: July 7 - July 13
July 14, 2025
Central Europe finds itself at the epicenter of competing pressures as democratic institutions grapple with algorithmic chaos and energy blackmail simultaneously. While Slovak leadership weaponizes gas dependence to undermine EU sanctions unity, artificial intelligence emerges as an unexpected battleground where Polish authorities contemplate blocking major platforms over hate speech generated by chatbots. Czech intelligence revelations about Russian recruitment networks operating through social media platforms paint a disturbing picture of hybrid warfare evolution, even as Prague's diplomatic efforts to maintain regional solidarity face resistance from Bratislava's transactional approach. We analysed how the convergence of technological disruption, economic leverage, and geopolitical maneuvering creates a volatile cocktail that could reshape European cohesion in ways previously unimaginable.
CEE Monitoring Digest: June 30 - July 6
July 7, 2025
A week in Central Europe has stripped away diplomatic niceties to reveal the true faces of regional power brokers: while Slovakia's foreign minister fantasizes about "forgiving" Putin and sabotages fresh EU sanctions, Poland is preparing for the long haul, pouring billions into a five-fold surge in artillery shell production. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic finds itself in an awkward dance, lobbying Trump on economic warfare against Russia while simultaneously investigating a brewing scandal involving eight domestic companies that may have been feeding Moscow's war machine. This three-capital drama illustrates how geopolitical ambitions and economic interests are redrawing the map of allies and adversaries during Europe's most perilous hour.
CEE Monitoring Digest: June 23 - 29
June 30, 2025
Russia's war against all modern humanity is continuing to split Central Europe into camps that would make Cold War strategists dizzy. Slovakia's Fico plays energy blackmail, freezing EU sanctions while nursing personal grudges against Zelensky that he airs like dirty laundry. Poland's Sikorski channels history lessons, warning Putin faces the same military-spending doom that buried Brezhnev – yet Polish voters grow weary of bankrolling Ukraine's defense, with nearly half wanting to turn off the tap. Against this chaos, Czechia emerges as the grown-up: Pavel sweet-talks Trump about squeezing Moscow harder, while security services bust teen terror cells spawned in TikTok's dark corners – because apparently, traditional threats weren't enough for 2025.
CEE Monitoring Digest: June 16 - 22
June 23, 2025
Central Europe keeps finding itself torn between unity and division as security challenges mount: Czech ammunition production for Ukraine accelerates through 2026 while Slovak PM Fico flirts with NATO withdrawal—a move his own citizens reject. Poland sounds alarms over Russian GPS jamming across the Baltic and warns of dangerous links between Middle East turmoil and intensified Kremlin aggression. From Bratislava's political gambling to Warsaw's fragmenting coalitions, the battle for Europe's security future is playing out in real time—with consequences that will echo far beyond the region's borders. The IESS describes these tensions in our new weekly news digest.
CEE Monitoring Digest: June 9 - 15
June 16, 2025
The Bratislava-Prague-Warsaw axis fractures before our eyes: Slovak PM Fico openly admires authoritarian regimes while blocking Kremlin sanctions, Czechia methodically builds strategic partnership with Ukraine – from pilot training programs to planning ammunition deliveries through 2026, while Poland after the right-wing electoral victory demonstrates a paradoxical situation where Tusk's confidence vote (243 votes "for") cannot hide deep coalition cracks, even as new UN research confirms Ukrainian refugees added 2.7% to Polish GDP. Historical grievances and political populism eclipse rational calculations in a region meant to be the frontline against Russian aggression. IESS examines how this fragmentation could reshape European security architecture and the EU's capacity to counter the Kremlin.
CEE Monitoring Digest: June 2 - 8
June 9, 2025
A dramatic schism engulfs the heart of Europe: Slovakia openly sabotages the sanctions regime against the Kremlin, the Polish electorate chooses anti-Ukrainian populist Nawrocki as president, while Prague demonstrates unwavering resolve in confronting Russian aggression. The region's geopolitical pendulum swings between capitulation to Moscow and principled solidarity with Kyiv, shaping a new configuration of forces that will determine European security's trajectory for years to come. Three neighboring capitals – three radically different responses to the challenge of Putin's imperialism, and the fate of the entire continent depends on which model prevails. Read about these events in the latest IESS weekly news digest.
CEE Monitoring Digest: May 27 - June 1
June 2, 2025
Central Europe finds itself at a crossroads between solidarity and populism: while Prague exposes Chinese cyberattacks and warns about the end of the "era of peace," and Warsaw develops an ambitious logistics project for Ukrainian reconstruction, the Slovak prime minister challenges Berlin, and Poland's newly elected president trades Ukrainian interests for far-right votes. From Petr Pavel's realistic assessments of Ukraine's NATO prospects to Robert Fico's attacks on judicial independence, the region demonstrates a troubling split between pro-European forces and supporters of authoritarian revanchism. This latest IESS digest reveals how the struggle for Europe's future unfolds in three key countries where the stakes for Ukraine grow ever higher.
CEE Monitoring Digest: May 19 - 26
May 27, 2025
European solidarity with Ukraine is being put to the test: while Slovakia demands payment for its aid and accuses Kyiv of "selling" resources to the USA, Czechia invests in training Ukrainian F-16 pilots and plans long-term defense partnerships. Germany is ready to cut funding to defiant allies, while in Poland, a presidential candidate openly promises to block Ukraine's NATO membership, prompting accusations of "state treason" from the prime minister. These contrasts reveal not just different approaches to Ukraine but a fundamental struggle for the future of European identity between pro-Russian populists and proponents of Atlantic unity, which IESS once again covers and analyzes in its latest digest.
CEE Monitoring Digest: May 12 - 18
May 19, 2025
In this digest, we analyze the stark contrasts in Central European countries' policies regarding Russian aggression: from Slovakia's pro-Russian course, which continues to finance the Kremlin's war machine through energy purchases, to Poland's powerful military support for Ukraine worth €4.5 billion and Czechia's principled position calling for stronger sanctions after Moscow's latest war crimes. Simultaneously, we analyze Lukashenko's hybrid attack on the Polish border, which is an element of a coordinated strategy to destabilize the eastern flank of the EU and NATO. The IESS underlines that the Central European region remains a key battleground for the continent's future security architecture, where Europe's ability to withstand the Russian threat is being formed.
CEE Monitoring Digest: May 5 - 11
May 12, 2025
Our newest analysis focuses on the stark contrast in Central European countries' approaches to Russian aggression. Slovakia under Fico demonstrates further drift toward Moscow: rejecting EU energy independence and making a scandalous visit to Russia openly undermines European unity. The Czech Republic, meanwhile, has taken a clear moral stance, rejecting Russian propaganda and exposing the Kremlin's false "peace" initiatives. Poland has faced unprecedented hybrid attacks from Russia—from election interference to acts of state terrorism on its territory—and responded with decisive diplomatic countermeasures. These dramatic differences create both challenges and opportunities for European security. Understanding this dynamic is key to forecasting the future of regional security and Ukraine's relations with its critically important western neighbors.
CEE Monitoring Digest: April 28 - May 4
May 5, 2025
In this weekly news digest of IESS, we analyze key developments shaping the security landscape in Central Europe. Slovakia displays strategic ambivalence: government analysts recommend supporting Ukraine's European integration and highlight economic benefits from Ukrainian workers, while the Culture Minister publicly admires pro-Putin singer Netrebko. The Czech Republic deepens defense cooperation with Ukraine by establishing a joint F-16 pilot training school, as President Pavel advocates for European strategic autonomy and firmly rejects fictitious Russian "ceasefires." Poland prepares large-scale exercises in response to the Russian-Belarusian "Zapad" maneuvers, while simultaneously facing internal anti-Ukrainian provocations that nevertheless receive appropriate law enforcement responses. We examine how these dynamics affect regional security and prospects for Ukrainian-European integration.
CEE Monitoring Digest: April 21 - 27
April 28, 2025
This week, IESS focuses once again on key developments in Central and Eastern Europe that are shaping the region's security architecture. From Slovak Prime Minister Fico's unyielding stance on an unpopular tax and protests against civil society restrictions in Bratislava to the growing crisis of Ukrainian caregivers in Czechia against the backdrop of Prague's robust military support, the region demonstrates a complex dynamic of social and security challenges. Meanwhile, Poland continues to strengthen its role as a regional leader, countering hybrid threats on the Belarusian border, providing a key logistical hub for supporting Ukraine, and adapting its defense policy to new realities, even against EU fiscal constraints.
CEE Monitoring Digest: April 14 - 20
April 21, 2025
Recent weeks have demonstrated cardinal differences in the approach of Central European countries toward Russian aggression against Ukraine. The Slovak parliament rejected a resolution condemning Russian military actions, while Prime Minister Fico demonstratively plans to visit Moscow on May 9, ignoring EU calls. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic has achieved complete energy independence from Russian oil, and its diplomacy exposes the Kremlin's false statements about a "ceasefire." Poland openly criticizes Hungary's pro-Russian position in the EU and refutes manipulative threats from Russian intelligence, remaining the most consistent defender of Ukrainian interests in the region. These processes are shaping a new security landscape in Central and Eastern Europe, where Ukraine has both steadfast allies and new challenges in diplomatic relations. IESS presents an analysis of last week's challenges that the EU security has faced.
CEE Monitoring Digest: April 7 - 13
April 14, 2025
Recent events in Ukraine's relations with its key neighbors — Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland — vividly demonstrate the contrasts of European policy towards Russian aggression. From Slovakia's blocking of sanctions against the Lukashenko family to the Czech Republic's transfer of the last T-72 tank from its arsenals. Moreover, Prime Minister Tusk called the Russian strike on Sumy a "bloody Palm Sunday," and Minister Sikorski publicly called on the Trump administration to see the true face of the Kremlin. In this digest, IESS analyzes how these events are shaping a new security configuration in the region and what they mean for Ukraine's future and its Euro-Atlantic prospects.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 31 - April 6
April 7, 2025
The last week has clearly shown the different approaches of neighbors to support Ukraine. Poland reaffirmed its strategic partnership - extraditing a Russian agent and transferring 5,000 Starlink terminals for critical infrastructure. The Czech Republic has allocated 100 million euros for the modernization of Ukrainian hospitals and guaranteed the supply of ammunition until September 2025. But Slovakia still holds an anti-Ukrainian and anti-European vector: the invitation of Russian diplomats, plans for a visit to Moscow, and initiatives that cause mass protests among its citizens. Our analysis shows how these contrasts shape the new security architecture in the region and what challenges await European and Ukrainian diplomacy.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 24 - 30
March 31, 2025
Minister Sikorsky's alarming statements about Russia's potential "broader aggression" by the end of the decade, Poland's decisive steps to modernize border infrastructure, the resumption of Russian gas supplies to Slovakia, and the threat of a veto on aid to Ukraine, the split in Slovak politics over the peacekeeping mission, as well as Czech plans to adapt Finnish crisis response experience - these are the key events of the week that are shaping the security landscape of Central Europe and require in-depth analysis to understand their impact on regional stability.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 17 - 23
March 24, 2025
Central Europe remains an outpost of support for Ukraine: Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warns of the likelihood of Russian aggression in 4-6 years, Czech leaders Petr Pavel and Petr Fiala demonstrate readiness for decisive action, including a potential international mission, and in Slovakia thousands of citizens once again in recent months come out to mass protests against the pro-Russian policy of the government Robert Fico. The region of Central Europe is turning into a key geopolitical arena of struggle for European security and support for Ukraine.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 10 - 16
March 17, 2025
The American initiative of a 30-day truce provoked different reactions from European capitals – from Tusk's restrained skepticism to Lipavsky's enthusiasm and Fico's vague declarations. The Polish political landscape is transforming before our eyes – the king of TikTok and beer, Slawomir Menzen, with anti-Ukrainian rhetoric for the first time can get into the second round of the presidential election. And the Druzhba pipeline again demonstrates how Russia uses energy dependence to undermine the unity of Central Europe. Read more about the challenges facing European security in the analytical digest by IESS.
CEE Monitoring Digest: March 3 - 9
March 10, 2025
Central and Eastern Europe demonstrates contrasting security strategies: Poland shows rare political unity between President Duda and Prime Minister Tusk to support Ukraine as a guarantor of its own security, with a proposal to increase NATO defense spending to 3% of GDP, while it invests almost 5%. The Czech Republic, under the leadership of Prime Minister Fiala, resolutely returns to the concept of strategic autonomy of Europe, adopting a program of increasing the defense budget to 3% of GDP and emphasizing European responsibility for regional security. Instead, Slovakia is experiencing an internal political crisis due to the pro-Russian orientation of the Fico government, where President Pellegrini stipulates support for Ukraine with the resumption of gas transit, and a member of the ruling party Kaliniak publicly welcomes the prospect of Russian occupation of Ukraine, which provoked mass protests and deepened the public split between the Euro-Atlantic and pro-Russian vectors.
CEE Monitoring Digest: February 24 - March 2
March 3, 2025
Poland reaffirmed its strong support for Ukraine, with PM Tusk backing Zelenskyy after a White House diplomatic scandal and announcing 5,000 more Starlink terminals for Ukraine, while the rise of an anti-Ukrainian presidential candidate signals challenges ahead. In Slovakia, nationalist leaders escalated anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, with demands for Ukraine to return €3.5B in aid and Fico threatening to block EU summit conclusions unless Russian gas transit resumes. Czechia strengthened its role as a key Ukraine ally, ramping up arms exports and dismissing Putin’s claims about Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as propaganda. Meanwhile, a survey revealed a stark contrast in regional views, with Czechs overwhelmingly supporting Zelenskyy while Slovaks showed more trust in Putin.
CEE Monitoring Digest: February 17-23
February 24, 2025
Slovak PM Fico justified Russia’s invasion and attacked Zelenskyy at CPAC, reinforcing pro-Kremlin rhetoric, while his meeting with Elon Musk signaled closer ties with Trump’s circle. Poland backed Ukraine’s Starlink access despite US Republican skepticism, while a €91M corruption scandal over stolen generators damaged its previous government’s reputation. In Czechia, President Pavel condemned Trump’s “Zelenskyy is a dictator” claim, and 40,000 people rallied in Prague for Ukraine. Both Czechia and Slovakia distanced themselves from sending peacekeepers, exposing regional security divides.
CEE Monitoring Digest: February 10-16
February 17, 2025
Mass protests continue in Slovakia as PM Fico moves to ban the "Democrats" opposition party, using baseless accusations to weaken opposition ahead of potential early elections. He also escalates anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, claiming Slovakia has a “moral right” to cut gas supplies to Ukraine, echoing Kremlin narratives. Poland pushes for Ukraine and Europe to take part in any peace talks, countering backroom deals, while FM Sikorski calls Trump’s call with Putin a mistake. Czech leaders reaffirm strong pro-Ukraine positions in talks with the US, emphasizing the need for continued military support. The Czech General Staff warns that Russia will remain a long-term threat, pushing for European security restructuring aligned with Ukraine’s defense goals.
CEE Monitoring Digest: February 3-9
February 10, 2025
Mass protests in Slovakia against PM Robert Fico continue for a second month, with nearly 100,000 people demanding his resignation. Opposition parties are gaining ground, with Progressive Slovakia and Fico's SMER-SD nearly tied. In the meantime, Ukraine and Poland signed a groundbreaking defense agreement to boost weapons production, aligning with European security strategies. The Czech Republic strengthened its pro-democratic stance by joining the EU’s legal action against Hungary’s controversial sovereignty law while reaffirming its strategic alignment with the US on Russia, China, and global security issues.
CEE Monitoring Digest: January 27 - February 2
February 3, 2025
In Slovakia, PM Robert Fico escalated anti-Ukrainian rhetoric while introducing a controversial mandatory schooling policy for Ukrainian refugees, further straining diplomatic ties. Poland took steps to limit border blockades affecting Ukrainian trade, addressed concerns over Russian-linked business dealings, and positioned itself as a key player in potential Ukraine peace talks. Czechia reinforced its military support by continuing ammunition procurement for Ukraine, though internal political shifts could affect long-term commitment. Tensions also rose between Slovakia and Czechia, with Fico accusing Prague of interference and Slovakia criticizing Ukraine’s invitation to the Auschwitz commemoration instead of Russia.
CEE Monitoring Digest: January 20-26
January 27, 2025
Mass protests against Slovakia's PM Fico's pro-Russian policies and upcoming no-confidence votes underline growing societal and political opposition, with strong pro-European and pro-Ukrainian sentiment. In Czechia, the government extended refugee protections through the Lex Ukrajina bill and proposed Ukraine's integration into the EU market. Poland launched the NATO-Ukraine JATEC center in Bydgoszcz while navigating transportation-sector tensions due to strict regulations on Ukrainian carriers.
CEE Monitoring Digest: January 13-19
January 20, 2025
Slovakia faces deepening political divisions, with protests and controversies highlighting generational and ideological divides over its stance towards Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile, Poland reaffirmed its strong support for Ukraine through plans for a 2026 recovery summit, historical reconciliation efforts, and proactive security measures against Russian interference. The Czech Republic took a decisive step toward energy independence by completing the transition to Western oil supplies, while grappling with domestic debates over extending protections for Ukrainian refugees.
CEE Monitoring Digest: January 6-12
January 13, 2025
Poland and the Czech Republic demonstrated robust alignment with Ukraine, underscoring shared strategic priorities and a commitment to countering Russian aggression. Conversely, Slovakia's and particularly Fico's increasing alignment with Moscow and contentious rhetoric toward Ukraine highlight fractures in regional cohesion. These developments reflect a complex balance of cooperation and divergence in addressing common geopolitical threats.